The group stage at Euro 2024 is starting to take shape with the second round of matches underway.
Who could book their progress in the second set of matches? Who has work to do? We run through all six groups and set out the permutations.
The top two teams in each group go through to the round of 16, along with the four best runners-up. The third-placed scenarios can be found at the bottom of the article.
This article will be updated after each group stage fixture.
QUALIFIED (2/16): Germany, Spain
TIEBREAKERS:
If teams are equal on points, they will be separated by the following criteria:
1. Head-to-head points
2. Head-to-head goal difference
3. Head-to-head goals scored
If three teams are level on points, a mini-league is created only involving the results of the matches between the teams in question.
4. If after applying stages 1-3 some teams are still level, it is reapplied just to those teams. For instance, England, Slovenia and Serbia are level on points; after applying 1-3, England are first but Slovenia and Serbia cannot be separated in the three-team mini-league. The direct head-to-head between Slovenia and Serbia would determine second place.
If teams still cannot be separated, the following are applied:
5. Group goal difference
6. Group goals scored
7. Penalty shootout, if the two teams are playing each other on the final matchday
8. If they don’t play each other, lower disciplinary points (1 point yellow, 3 points red via two yellows, 3 points direct red, 4 points yellow followed by direct red)
9. European qualifiers overall ranking, unless Germany are involved. If Germany are involved, then it would be a random drawing of lots.
Group A
Results:
Germany 5-1 Scotland
Hungary 1-3 Switzerland
Germany 2-0 Hungary
Scotland 1-1 Switzerland
Remaining fixtures:
June 23
Switzerland vs. Germany
Scotland vs. Hungary
Germany: Germany are through, and will top the group with a win/draw against Switzerland.
Switzerland: A draw vs. Germany will secure safe passage in second place.
Switzerland would top the group with a win, dropping Germany into second.
Switzerland will definitely be through in second with a defeat if Scotland draw/lose. If Switzerland lose and Scotland win, second place would come down to goal difference (see Scotland section), though four points is highly likely to be enough to go through in third.
Scotland: To finish in second, Scotland must win and Switzerland lose with a goal-difference swing of at least six. If a six-goal swing happens and goal difference finishes equal (e.g. 2-0, 0-4 to put both teams on 4-6) then lower disciplinary points would decide second, which Switzerland hold.
However, a win to put them on four points should be enough in third.
A draw for Scotland, to finish on two points, will not be enough for a best third-place spot.
Hungary: Must beat Scotland to finish above them on three points in third and hope that’s good enough. However, their goal difference stands at minus-4, so they would need a big win to have a realistic chance of continuing.
Group B
Results:
Spain 3-0 Croatia
Italy 2-1 Albania
Croatia 2-2 Albania
Spain 1-0 Italy
June 24
Albania vs. Spain
Croatia vs. Italy
Spain: Have qualified as group winners as they hold the head to head over Italy.
Italy: Will finish in second place with a win/draw against Croatia.
Cannot finish in the top two with a defeat but if Italy lose and Albania draw/lose, Italy finish third and might go through with three points.
If Italy lose and Albania win, Italy finish bottom.
Albania: Must beat Spain to have a chance.
If Albania win and Croatia win, the two teams will be level on points and second will be decided on goal difference — though the nation who finishes third is highly likely to go through with four points.
If Albania win and Croatia draw, Albania finish third and should have enough to go through.
Croatia: Have to win against Italy to be in contention, and will move up to second if Albania draw/lose.
If both Croatia and Albania win, Croatia will have to close a goal difference gap of two goals to finish second. If it finishes level (e.g. Albania win 1-0 and Croatia 3-0) it will come down to Fairplay points.
Group C
Results:
Slovenia 1-1 Denmark
Serbia 0-1 England
Slovenia 1-1 Serbia
Denmark 1-1 England
June 25
England vs. Slovenia
Denmark vs. Serbia
England: England require a draw against Slovenia to go through, and will definitely win the group with a win.
They can win the group with a draw if Denmark fail to beat Serbia. If England draw and Demark win it will come down to goal difference.
England can’t win the group with a loss, but they would finish second if Denmark draw. If England lose and Denmark win, England will finish third and that’s still likely to be enough to be one of the best third-place teams.
If England lose and Serbia win, England finish second on head-to-head record.
Denmark: Must win to guarantee qualification. If Denmark and Slovenia win, they take the top two spots with first decided on goal difference. If Denmark and England win, Denmark finish second. If Denmark win and England draw, top spot is decided on goal difference, and the Danes would take first if they win by 2+ goals.
Denmark will finish second with a draw if Slovenia lose.
If Denmark and Slovenia draw, second would be decided on goals scored, so the team involved in the higher-scoring draw goes through. Ergo, Denmark 2-2 and Slovenia 1-1 sees Denmark finish second. If both draw by the same scoreline, second is decided on fairplay points, which is level, and it then goes to European Qualifiers overall ranking: Denmark 9th, Slovenia 15th.
If Denmark draw and Slovenia win, Denmark finish third and they must hope three points is enough as a best-third place team.
If Denmark lose, they can still finish third if Slovenia are beaten, but two points won’t get you through.
Slovenia: Must beat England to guarantee qualification.
Can only qualify in second with a draw if Denmark also draw, then the above scenarios over the scorelines apply.
Cannot finish in the top two with a defeat, and two points won’t be enough for a best third-placed team.
Serbia: Have to beat Denmark to have any chance, and will finish second as long as England win/draw.
If Serbia win and England lose, Serbia will finish third but with four points that should see them through.
Group D
Results:
Poland 1-2 Netherlands
Austria 0-1 France
Remaining fixtures:
June 21
Poland vs. Austria
Netherlands vs. France
June 25
France vs. Poland
Netherlands vs. Austria
Netherlands: Netherlands will qualify with a win, which will be as group winners if Poland win/draw in the earlier match on Friday.
France: France will be through with a win, which will be as group winners if Austria win/draw in the first fixture.
Poland: Cannot finish in the top two if they lose to Austria and France then win/draw.
Austria: Will not be able to finish in the top two if they are beaten by Poland and Netherlands win/draw.
Group E
Results:
Romania 3-0 Ukraine
Belgium 0-1 Slovakia
Remaining fixtures:
June 21
Slovakia vs. Ukraine
June 22
Belgium vs. Romania
June 26
Ukraine vs. Belgium
Slovakia vs. Romania
Romania: Romania can seal qualification with a win over Belgium, which will be in the top two if Slovakia get a win/draw against Ukraine, .
Slovakia: If Slovakia can get a victory against Ukraine they are through, and that will be in the top two if Romania win/draw against Belgium.
Belgium: Won’t be able to finish in the top two if Slovakia win/draw against Ukraine and then Belgium lose to Romania. Would remain in the hunt to go through in third.
Ukraine: Can’t take an automatic place if they lose to Slovakia and Romania then win/draw against Belgium. But there would be a final-match showdown with Belgium for third.
Group F
Results:
Turkey 3-1 Georgia
Portugal 2-1 Czechia
Remaining fixtures:
June 22
Georgia vs. Czechia
Turkey vs. Portugal
June 26
Czechia vs. Turkey
Georgia vs. Portugal
Turkey: Turkey will be through with a win, which will be as group winners if Georgia win/draw in the first game.
Portugal: Portugal will qualify with a victory, which will be as group winners if Czechia win/draw against Georgia.
Czechia: Will be eliminated if they are beaten by Georgia and Turkey win/draw.
Georgia: Will be out if they lose to Czechia and Portugal then win/draw.
Ranking of best third-placed teams
The four best runners-up will go through to the round of 16.
This format has been in place for two previous editions, and both times four points secured progress. At Euro 2020, Ukraine sneaked through on three points. At Euro 2016, both Northern Ireland and eventual winners Portugal made it on three points.
It’s still very early days to determine how many points will be required.
The third-place ranking is determined first by:
1. Points
2. Goal difference
3. Goals scored
4. Wins
5. Lower disciplinary points
6. European qualifiers overall ranking, unless Germany are involved. If Germany are involved, random draw.
While this is the current top six, the ranking can flip around very quickly by another team leaping into third place in a group, or dropping down into it.
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