global economy: Global economic recovery would be back in 2021: PECC report

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Mumbai: The global economic recovery is set to be back in 2021 as the world would manage to contain Covid 19 pandemic a Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) report said.

Report by PECC, a network of member committees composed of individuals and institutions dedicated to promoting cooperation across the Asia Pacific region, said that the global recovery would be uneven across various countries and region.

“The economic outlook for the Asia-Pacific has improved somewhat in recent months, but recovery will be uneven and fragile as the global pandemic has deepened in some places. Asia-Pacific economies are expected to shrink by about 3.1% in 2020. Growth of 5% is now expected next year which is then expected to decline towards 3.5% in subsequent years,” the report said.

“While there is hope for a recovery in 2021, the risk of protectionism holds back investment in new jobs and innovation, it will be essential for the region to respond appropriately and decisively in order to restore confidence for sustainable recovery.” Eduardo Pedrosa, Secretary General, PECC

For trade, exports and imports figures are expected to fall by 8.6% and 9.7% respectively in 2020 but will rebound to 7.8% and 9.2% growth in 2021. However, this is unlikely to offset losses in the medium-term as the risk of protectionism and slowing trade growth have weighed in heavily on confidence for a sustainable recovery, the report said.

As per the report the foreign direct investment (FDI) has also taken a hit and is expected to drop below US$1 trillion for the first time since 2009. The impact of widespread lockdown, demand shock and policy uncertainty have affected both greenfield investment which has seen a 30% drop, and cross-border M&As which fell by 21%. Prolonged shutdown of economic activities is likely to have a larger impact on emerging economies that are reliant on foreign investment for industrial activity and infrastructure development.

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