sensex: Morgan Stanley sees Sensex at 50,000 by December 2021

0

Mumbai: Morgan Stanley has upgraded its target for Sensex to 50,000 by December 2021 from an earlier target of 37,300 for June 2021 as it believes that the coming growth cycle is not fully priced in. The brokerage expects the small and mid-caps to beat the large-caps in 2021 as it believes the concentration of market cap and profits may have peaked with the return of the growth cycle. Morgan Stanley, which has an ‘overweight’ rating on India, joins brokerages such as Goldman Sachs and Nomura that have raised their targets for the country’s stock benchmarks.

The new price target implies a 13.75 per cent upside for the Sensex from Tuesday’s close of 43,952.71.

“We remain in a bull market that started in March, and even though one should expect corrections along the way, the equity market may have more legs before it tops out,” said Morgan Stanley, in a client note. The brokerage expects the Sensex to touch 59,000 in a ‘bull case scenario’ where the virus situation improves, there is sustained recovery in growth and global stimulus supports asset prices.

In its ‘bear case scenario’, Morgan Stanley sees the Sensex at 37,000 if the virus issue continues well into 2021 and growth falters.

The firm has added SBI to its focus list and removed Apollo Hospitals. It is underweight on consumer discretionary, industrials, financials, and utilities. It is underweight on technology and energy sectors. “We expect domestic cyclicals to outperform exports, with rate-sensitives and consumers outperforming whereas energy should underperform,” said Morgan Stanley.

Portfolio returns are more likely to be driven by bottom-up stock picking rather than top-down macro forces so one should keep sector positions narrow, said Morgan Stanley. The firm has raised FY21, FY22 and FY23 earnings per share estimates for the Sensex by 15 per cent, 10 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively.

Morgan Stanley said Covid-19 infections appear to have peaked, high-frequency growth indicators are coming in strong, government policy action is beating expectations and Indian companies are picking up activity through the pandemic. Morgan Stanley expects growth to surprise on the upside and real rates to remain in negative territory for several months.

var urlParams = window.URLSearchParams && new URLSearchParams(window.location.search), optParam = urlParams.get && urlParams.get('opt');

var objSec = {template: 'articleshow_main', msid:'79273636', secNames: ['markets','stocks','news'],secIds:['2147477890','1977021501','2146842','2146843']};

var tmplName = tpName="articleshow_main",lang = '',nav_sec1,newHookId,subsec1_value,subsec1_common = '1977021501',newHookId2,subsec2_value,subsec2_common = '2146842'; var objVc = {version_on:'2020111875205',js_etsubscription:'1',js_comments:'111',js_googleslock:'782',js_googlelogin:'54',js_common_buydirect:'749',js_bookmark:'18',js_login:'44',js_datepicker:'2',js_electionsmn:'22',js_push:'54',css_buydirect:'14',js_tradenow:'14',js_commonall:'121',lib_login:'https://jssocdn.indiatimes.com/crosswalk/jsso_crosswalk_legacy_0.5.9.min.js',live_tv:'{"auto_open": 1, "play_check_hour": 12, "default_tv": "1"}',global_cube:'0',global_cube_wap:'0',global_cube_faces:'2',global_cube_fullad:'0',global_cube_landingon:'sensex',global_cube_wap_url:'https://m.economictimes.com/iframe_cube.cms',site_sync:'0',adx:'1',amazon_bidding:'1',fan_ads:'0',trackAdCode:'0',ajaxError:'1',oauth:'oauth',planPage:"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/plans.cms",planPageTest:'https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/plans.cms',subscriptions:'subscriptions',krypton:'kryptonp',apw:'apw',nlSubscribe:'etsub3'}; var objDim = {d52:'nature_of_content',d10:'user_login_status_hit',d54:'content_shelf_life',d53:'content_target_audience',d12:'tags_meta_keyword',d56:'degree_of_conten',d11:'content_theme_the_primary_tag',d55:'content_tone',d14:'special_coverage',d58:'et_product_item',d13:'article_publish_time',d16:'video_embed',d15:'audio_embed',d59:'show_paywall_final',d61:'paywall_probability',d60:'paywall_score',d63:'paid_articles_read',d62:'eligibility_paywall_rule',d65:'bureau_articles_read',d20:'platform',d64:'free_articles_read',d23:'author_id',d67:'loyalty',d66:'article_length',d25:'page_template',d24:'syft_initiate_page',d68:'paywall_hits',d27:'site_sub_section',d26:'site_section',d29:'section_id',d28:'prime_deal_code',d70:'us_election_2020',d72:'paywall_experiment',d71:'plan_group_id',d32:'prime_article_read_before_syft',d34:'content_age',d33:'prime_article_read_before_success',d36:'sign_in_initiation_position',d35:'subscription_method_hit',d37:'user_subscription_status',d1:'et_product',d2:'blocker_type',d3:'user_login_status_hit',d4:'agency',d5:'author_name',d6:'cms_content_publishing_type',d7:'content_personalisation_level',d8:'article_publish_date',d9:'sub_section_name',d40:'freeread',d45:'prime_hp_ui_template',d47:'prime_hp_ui_content_b_color',d46:'prime_hp_ui_content_size',d49:'syft_initiate_position',d48:'content_msid',d50:'signin_initiate_page'};var serverTime="11.18.2020 07:53:55";var WRInitTime=(new Date()).getTime(); (function () {if (self !== top) {var e = function (s) {return document.getElementsByTagName(s)}; e("head")[0].innerHTML = '

'; setTimeout(function () {e("body")[0].innerHTML = ''; var hEle = e("html")[0]; hEle.innerHTML = 'economictimes.indiatimes.com'; hEle.className=""; top.location = self.location; }, 0);}})();

_log = window.console && console.log ? console.log : function () {}; if(window.localStorage && localStorage.getItem('temp_geolocation')) { var geolocation = localStorage.getItem('temp_geolocation'); } // Creating Elements for IE : HTML 5 and cross domain checks (function () { var elem = ["article", "aside", "figure", "footer", "figcaption", "header", "nav", "section", "time"]; for(var i=0; i<=elem.length-1; i++) {document.createElement(elem[i])} var hd = 'indiatimes.com', dd = document.domain,intv,intv2,fo; if (dd != hd && dd.indexOf(hd) != -1) {document.domain = hd} })(); var intv,intv2;var fo; if(subsec1_value == '1715249553' && subsec2_value == '1052732854'){ subsec1_value = newHookId = '1052732854'; // politicsnation }else if(subsec1_value == '1715249553' && subsec2_value == '1373380680'){ subsec1_value = newHookId = '1373380680'; // Economy } if(optParam != "1") { customDimension = window.customDimension || {}; var _gaq = _gaq || []; var customDimension = customDimension || {}; var analytics_js_path="https://www.google-analytics.com/analytics.js"; (function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){ (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o), m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m) })(window,document,'script',analytics_js_path,'ga'); var gaProperty = 'UA-198011-5'; var disableStr="ga-disable"; if (document.cookie.indexOf(disableStr + '=true') > -1) { window[disableStr + '-' + gaProperty] = true; }

ga('set', 'anonymizeIp', true); ga('create', gaProperty, 'auto', {'allowLinker': true}); ga('require', 'linker'); ga('linker:autoLink', ['economictimes.com']); ga('require', 'displayfeatures'); window.optimizely = window.optimizely || []; window.optimizely.push("activateUniversalAnalytics"); ga('require', 'GTM-WV452H7'); customDimension.dimension1 = "ET Free"; customDimension.dimension4 = "ET Bureau";

customDimension.dimension6 = "Native - 79273636"; customDimension.dimension8 = "Nov 18, 2020"; customDimension.dimension9 = "Stocks";

customDimension.dimension12 = "sensex,Brokerage,target price,traders,Morgan Stanley"; customDimension.dimension13 = "06:53 AM IST";

customDimension.dimension15 = "No"; customDimension.dimension16 = "No";

(function () { var a = window.localStorage && localStorage.getItem('et_syftCounter') || ''; a = a && JSON.parse(a) || {}; if(a.beforeSyft && customDimension) { customDimension.dimension32 = a.beforeSyft; } if(a.afterSyft) { customDimension.dimension33 = a.afterSyft; } })()

var contentAge="0.023148148148148147"; if(contentAge) { customDimension.dimension34 = contentAge > 2 ? '>48hs':'<48hrs'; } if(customDimension){ customDimension.dimension25 = "articleshow_main"; customDimension.dimension26 = "Markets"; customDimension.dimension27 = "Markets/Stocks/News/"; customDimension.dimension29 = "1977021501"; customDimension.dimension48 = "79273636"; customDimension.dimension57 = _tiluuid; } ga('send', 'pageview', customDimension); var newHookId ='1977021501'; var newHookId2 = '2146842'; if(newHookId == '1715249553' && newHookId2 == '1052732854'){ newHookId = '1052732854'; // politicsnation }else if(newHookId == '1715249553' && newHookId2 == '1373380680'){ newHookId = '1373380680'; // Economy } var subsec1_value="1977021501", subsec1_2value="2146842"; if(subsec1_value == '1715249553' && subsec1_2value == '1052732854'){ subsec1_value="1052732854"; // politicsnation }else if(subsec1_value == '1715249553' && subsec1_2value == '1373380680'){ subsec1_value="1373380680"; // Economy } (function (g, r, o, w, t, h, rx) { g[t] = g[t] || function () {(g[t].q = g[t].q || []).push(arguments) }, g[t].l = 1 * new Date(); g[t] = g[t] || {}, h = r.createElement(o), rx = r.getElementsByTagName(o)[0]; h.async = 1;h.src = w;rx.parentNode.insertBefore(h, rx) })(window, document, 'script', 'https://static.growthrx.in/js/v2/web-sdk.js', 'grx'); grx('init', 'gf999c70d'); var grxDimension = {url: window.location.href, title : document.title, referral_url : document.referrer}; if(window.customDimension && window.objDim) { for(key in customDimension) { var dimId = 'd' + key.substr(9, key.length); if(objDim[dimId] && customDimension[key]) { grxDimension[objDim[dimId]] = customDimension[key]; } } } var subsStatus="Free User"; var jData = JSON.parse(localStorage.getItem('jStorage')); function getCookie(n) {var ne = n + "=", ca = document.cookie.split(';');for (var i=0;i< ca.length;i++){ var c = ca[i]; while (c.charAt(0) == ' ') c = c.substring(1, c.length); if (c.indexOf(ne) == 0) return c.substring(ne.length, c.length); } return null; } (function () { if(ssoid = getCookie('ssoid')) { try { grx('userId', ssoid); var pfuuid = getCookie('pfuuid'); if(pfuuid) { grxDimension['et_uuid'] = pfuuid} grxDimension[objDim['d3']] = 'LOGGEDIN'; var grx_userData = jData['prime_'+getCookie('TicketId')]; grx_userData = grx_userData || {}; var grx_userPermission = grx_userData.permissions; if(grx_userPermission.indexOf("expired_subscription") > -1) { subsStatus="Expired User"; } else if (grx_userPermission.indexOf("subscribed") > -1 && grx_userPermission.indexOf("cancelled_subscription") > -1 && grx_userPermission.indexOf("can_buy_subscription") > -1) { subsStatus="Paid User - In Trial"; } else if(grx_userPermission.indexOf("subscribed") > -1) { subsStatus="Paid User"; } else if(grx_userPermission.indexOf("etadfree_subscribed") > -1) { subsStatus="Ad Free User"; } } catch (e) {} } else { grxDimension[objDim['d3']] = 'NONLOGGEDIN'; } grxDimension[objDim['d37']] = subsStatus; })()

grx('track', 'page_view', grxDimension);

if(geolocation && geolocation != 5 && (typeof skip == 'undefined' || typeof skip.fbevents == 'undefined')) { !function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s) {if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod? n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)}; if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0'; n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0; t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,'script', 'https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js'); fbq('init', '338698809636220'); fbq('track', 'PageView'); }

var _comscore = _comscore || []; _comscore.push({ c1: "2", c2: "6036484"});

if(geolocation && geolocation != 5) { (function() { var s = document.createElement('script'), el = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.async = true; s.src = (document.location.protocol == "https:" ? "https://sb" : "http://b") + ".scorecardresearch.com/beacon.js"; el.parentNode.insertBefore(s, el); })(); }

if(geolocation && geolocation != 5) { (function() { function pingIbeat() { window._pg_endpt=(new Date()).getTime(); var e = document.createElement('script'); e.setAttribute('language', 'javascript'); e.setAttribute('type', 'text/javascript'); e.setAttribute('src', "https://agi-static.indiatimes.com/cms-common/ibeat.min.js"); document.head.appendChild(e); } if(typeof window.addEventListener == 'function') { window.addEventListener("load", pingIbeat, false); } else { var oldonload = window.onload; window.onload = (typeof window.onload != 'function') ? pingIbeat : function() { oldonload(); pingIbeat(); }; } })(); }

}

FOLLOW US ON GOOGLE NEWS

 

Source

Leave a comment