AEW Double or Nothing 2024 predictions

All Elite Wrestling is back on May 26 with their sixth annual Memorial Day weekend pay-per-view — Double or Nothing! The event comes our way Sunday night from Las Vegas at 8pm ET.

Including a free streaming pre-show which starts 90 minutes earlier, seven championships will be up for grabs at Double or Nothing — including AEW World champ Swerve Strickland’s first PPV defense and Mercedes Moné challenging for the TBS titled in her first-ever AEW match. We’ll also get an Anarchy in the Arena match, and more!

It’s a lot to process. But our motley crew is back to make predictions about the matches coming our way Sunday night from MGM Grand Garden Arena, and muse about all things AEW along the way.

Let’s get to it.

AEW DOUBLE OR NOTHING PREDICTIONS

Swerve Strickland (c) vs. Christian Cage for the AEW World championship

Sean Rueter: The only nit I have to pick with this feud is that it’s playing second fiddle to The EVP’s hostile takeover. But they’ve tied this story into that one enough that I’m excited to see the champ stand up to The Elite. But first, he has to exorcise some demons in what should be a classic with The Patriarch. Pick: Swerve Strickland

Geno Mrosko: It’s not yet that time but I wouldn’t mind it because hot damn is Christian just so much better in every company that isn’t WWE. Pick: Swerve Strickland

Claire Elizabeth: This is a really shockingly good feud despite its occasionally underwhelming placement and somewhat left field origin and I have no doubt the match will deliver, I just hope Swerve goes as devastatingly brutal as we know he likes to go. Pick: Shane “Swerve” Strickland

Cain A. Knight: The story here is very good, but Swerve isn’t losing the world title to a guy who is 50 years old. Pick: Swerve Strickland

Manolo H. Pizzazz: Whose house? Swerve’s house! Swerve retaining the title is a foregone conclusion. My question is how he handles the inevitable interference from the Patriarchy. Pick: Swerve Strickland

Marcus Benjamin: This is a good first challenge for Swerve. It’s also nice storytelling that incorporates the history between these two. As someone with a lot of evil deeds in his past, Swerve sees his atonement in Christian. Time for him to conquer his past. Pick: Swerve Strickland

Kyle Decker: Christian is a good first feud for Strickland as he’s a great villain but can take the L. I also think this will be the last of him as a dastardly heel as I have a theory that they’re going to rehab him over the summer and slowly reunite him with Copeland. I think an E&C vs. the Young Bucks would be a fantastic match for All In. Pick: Swerve Strickland

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The Elite (The Young Bucks, Kazuchika Okada & Jack Perry) vs. Team AEW (Bryan Danielson, Darby Allin & FTR) in Anarchy in the Arena

Sean Rueter: The evil empire got outmaneuvered once this week. It won’t happen twice, nor should it. How they get there should be interesting though, and a whole lot of fun. Pick: The Elite

Geno Mrosko: You really shouldn’t even hardly care about the result of this match. It’s just here for the vibes, man. Have FUN. Pick: The Elite

Claire Elizabeth: Darby is clearly the weak link here— the man brought a flamethrower into the arena and didn’t have the killer instinct to point it at ANYBODY! Easy pickings for the All-New, All-Different Elite. Pick: The Elite

Cain A. Knight: I’m starting to think that Bryan Danielson will go winless on AEW pay-per-view this year. Pick: The Elite

Manolo H. Pizzazz: I was tempted to choose Team AEW as a way to shake things up in the story progression, but I can’t see anyone on the Elite eating a pin in this match. I think Perry will get the glory over Danielson to ignite that into a proper singles feud. Tony Khan better have security if he is on site, or else he risks being kidnapped and used as an insurance policy to coerce Team AEW into laying down. The Elite might strap Khan to a chair with dynamite like an old-time cartoon. Pick: The Elite

Marcus Benjamin: This can go either way depending on how AEW wants this Elite story to play out. I’m not a betting man but there’s still more juice here. Pick: The Elite

Kyle Decker: The new Elite aren’t going to lose their first big match as a team here. Should be wild as Darby does something like lights himself on fire before hitting a suicide dive or something else batshit crazy. Pick: The Elite

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Willow Nightingale (c) vs. Mercedes Moné for the TBS championship

Sean Rueter: Beating one of their marquee free agent signings in her first match sounds crazy, but I truly think it’s the right call. The champ might not be a capital-S star like Mercedes, but she’s shown enough to prove she could be. A headline-grabbing win here would help make that happen, and lead to putting Moné fully back into the arrogant heel role that launched her on a path to being a Star all those years ago. Pick: Willow Nightingale

Geno Mrosko: I just can’t imagine a world where they bring in Moné, pay her all that money, and then beat her in her first match. She’s here to be a big, ahem, money star and putting a title on her right away is the play. Pick: Mercedes Moné

Claire Elizabeth: Mercedes has been off from the second she walked down the aisle to the worst possible take on Dvorak’s “From the New World” that wrestling has ever seen. Sasha friggin’ Banks lookin’ like a b-tier Contrapoints character and wrestling for the midcard belt?! I think not! And further, I have to think it means something, and wrestling has taught me that when a would-be babyface kinda sucks, the easiest way to correct course is with a heel turn… Pick: Willow Nightingale

Cain A. Knight: AEW made a big mistake by debuting Mercedes over two months before her first match. I guess we’ll see if she can turn things around now that she’s actually wrestling again and starting things off with a championship win. Pick: Mercedes Moné

Manolo H. Pizzazz: Tough call. I think this will be the ‘upset’ pick of the night. It’s time to make a superstar in Willow. Mercedes can justify the loss to ring rust from injury and get her win back down the line. Pick: Willow Nightingale

Marcus Benjamin: I’m unsure about this one. If you asked me a few weeks ago, I would’ve said Mercedes without hesitation. Now? Willow is not only proving compelling in her own right, but she’s got the crowd on her side. It’s a coin flip, as Harvey Dent might say. Pick: Mercedes Moné

Kyle Decker: I cannot imagine a world where Mercedes Moné loses her first match. I will say that this feud has a done a fantastic job having me all in on Willow, who I think easily handled Mercedes on the mic during that contract signing. Pick: Mercedes Moné

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Adam Copeland (c) vs. Malakai Black in a Barbed Wire Steel Cage match for the TNT title

Sean Rueter: Be careful what you wish for, Malakai. This is where Cope is gonna do all the stuff WWE wouldn’t let him do in his Hell in a Cell match at WrestleMania last year, or that got cut from that match when a ladder busted Finn Bálor wide open. Pick: Adam Copeland

Geno Mrosko: The story they’re telling would make me think they keep the title where it is in part because of what Black has been trying to bring out of him. Pick: Adam Copeland

Claire Elizabeth: I just want Gangrel to show up I just want Gangrel to show up please let Gangrel show up— Oh, a pick? I mean probably Cope but let’s get spicy. Pick: Malakai Black

Cain A. Knight: I have no idea where this story is going, but the match should be great. House of Black beat Copeland’s team on the last PPV, so I think it’s time for Adam to get his PPV win back. Pick: Adam Copeland

Manolo H. Pizzazz: You don’t steal a man’s wedding ring. Pick: Adam Copeland

Marcus Benjamin: I’m going with Mr. Black. I think there’s a better story with Edge dealing with his inner conflict while the House of Black tortures him for a few weeks. Pick: Malakai Black

Kyle Decker: This is a real toss up for me. I could see Copeland opting to put over Malakai, but at the same time, I don’t think they do. I think the Open gets a little more runway. Pick: Adam Copeland

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Timeless Toni Storm (c) vs. Serena Deeb for the AEW Women’s World championship

Sean Rueter: Don’t think this feud has done anyone any favors, but it did kill time until they’re ready to pull the trigger on whatever they’re going to do with Mariah May… which could come as part of the champ’s program with a Stardom wrestler for next month’s Forbidden Door PPV. Pick: Timeless Toni Storm

Geno Mrosko: This hasn’t been very good but I’m still a fan of the Timeless one. Pick: Toni Storm

Claire Elizabeth: Toni Storm will continue until morale improves we’re finally ready to pull the trigger on the Mariah May feud. Pick: Toni Storm

Cain A. Knight: The live audiences still love what Toni Storm is doing and don’t care about Serena’s seizures, so this championship isn’t going anywhere. Pick: Timeless Toni Storm

Manolo H. Pizzazz: Nobody stands in Storm’s way as champion until the returns of Dr. Britt Baker DMD and Jamie Hayter. Pick: Toni Storm

Marcus Benjamin: As much as I love Serena, I don’t think she’s the one who stops time for Toni Storm. Pick: Toni Storm

Kyle Decker: What will be most interesting to see how the different women’s titles feel if Mercedes does in fact win the TBS title. Would that suddenly feel like the bigger title, even though Toni is still doing great work? She’ll continue to do so because I don’t see Deeb winning this. Pick: Timeless Toni Storm

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Roderick Strong (c) vs. Will Ospreay for the AEW International championship

Sean Rueter: Two predictions for the price of one here… A seven star rating and a new champ. Pick: Will Ospreay

Geno Mrosko: I’m seeing stars. Lots of stars. Also a surprise. Pick: Roderick Strong

Claire Elizabeth: Knowing that I will not have End of Heartache if Roddy wins makes this easier than anything. Pick: Will Ospreay

Cain A. Knight: The Undisputed Kingdom has very little momentum without Adam Cole around, so you might as well put their belt on a guy who’s hot. Pick: Will Ospreay

Manolo H. Pizzazz: Strong would be a foolish choice to give Ospreay his first loss since becoming All Elite. That honor can be used for much more mileage elsewhere. Pick: Will Ospreay

Marcus Benjamin: I mean. Come on. Pick: Will Ospreay

Kyle Decker: I really hope an Ospreay win means they eventually merge this title into the AEW championship when he eventually wins that. This company has way too many titles, but putting these lower titles on top acts to really just act as adornments (like with Okada and the Continental Classic one) is a good way to rectify that. Pick: Will Ospreay, bruv

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Chris Jericho (c) vs. HOOK vs. Katsuyori Shibata for the FTW championship

Sean Rueter: Can I just say that Shibata’s text-to-speech translation interviews rule? As much as it pains me to admit it as a Day 1 HOOKer, but they’re definitely better than the Cold Hearted Handsome Devil’s promos. Anyway… The Learning Tree gimmick is probably the best thing anyone could do with the strange mix of heat Le Champion has these days. Which is good, I guess, because it’s probably going to remain a prominent part of AEW television for at least the rest of the year. Pick: Chris Jericho

Geno Mrosko: We have finally arrived at a point where I just want someone else to win so Jericho can maybe just kinda not be around? Yeah. That sucks. Pick: HOOK

Claire Elizabeth: I hate it but we’re here: Chris Jericho has go-away heat for me. Maybe a year ago leaning into it would have worked, but now it’s just even more annoying and not in a good way. Take a year off, maybe go back to WWE for one last run, work on a Fozzy box set, do anything that isn’t crapping up my TV screen on Wednesday nights. Pick: HOOK

Cain A. Knight: I’ve been in the Jericho Vortex long enough to have learned that Shibata is here to take the pin. Pick: Chris Jericho

Manolo H. Pizzazz: Interference from Big Bill only evens the odds. I suspect we might see a new member of the Learning Tree to tip the numbers in Jericho’s favor. Pick: Chris Jericho

Marcus Benjamin: This is such a weird feud for me. Chris is leaning into his internet reputation, while Hook and Shibata are getting treated like his sons. And not in a bad way. I don’t think they’re done with Chris’ Learning Tree gimmick and Hook will get his title back. Just not today. Pick: Chris Jericho

Kyle Decker: Triple threat means Big Billiam can get involved and Jericho can retain. Hopefully, down the line, he takes a Tazmission. Pick: The Learning Tree

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Jon Moxley vs. Konosuke Takeshita in an IWGP World Heavyweight title Eliminator

Sean Rueter: Do I want to see Takeshita get a shot at New Japan’s top belt? You betcha. Is this how I think that happens? Pick: Jon Moxley

Geno Mrosko: This one seems pretty clear. Pick: Jon Moxley

Claire Elizabeth: I’m not sure how but somehow this being an eliminator telegraphs it even harder than a full-on title match would have been. Like I guess maybe if Takeshita was going to win the title he could have dropped it back to a New Japan guy at Forbidden Door or something but all a win here gets him is a loss later, so… Pick: Jon Moxley

Cain A. Knight: If NJPW was cool with Takeshita challenging for the belt, this wouldn’t be a non-title match on PPV. Pick: Jon Moxley

Manolo H. Pizzazz: I can’t think of any reason to justify a prediction for Takeshita. Pick: Jon Moxley

Marcus Benjamin: This will be a fun match that Mox wins. Pick: Jon Moxley

Kyle Decker: The NJPW champion isn’t going to lose in any fashion on an AEW show. Pick: Jon Moxley

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The Bang Bang Gang (Jay White and Austin & Colten Gunn) vs. Death Triangle (PAC, Penta El Zero M, and Rey Fenix) for the Unified Trios titles

Sean Rueter: Hopefully some PPV wins are coming for PAC, but I think the Lucha Bros win last night was the only win Death Triangle is getting in Vegas this weekend. My greatest wish is that fka Bullet Club Gold’s win happens as a result of Juice Robinson’s return. Pick: The Bang Bang Gang

Geno Mrosko: The Bang Bang Gang is still a name that tickles me. I don’t care that I’m the age I am. Pick: Bang Bang Gang

Claire Elizabeth: Honestly I’m making this pick just because I hate having to remember which Ass Boy is which. Pick: Death Triangle

Cain A. Knight: Death Triangle is finally back, but I wonder for how long? Pick: Bang Bang Gang

Manolo H. Pizzazz: PAC is going to be a sad Bastard again. Pick: Bang Bang Gang

Marcus Benjamin: Death Triangle all the way. Pick: Death Triangle

Kyle Decker: I think they have a good thing going with the Bang Bang Gang right now and they should ride with it. Pick: The Bang Bang Gang

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Orange Cassidy vs. Trent Beretta

Sean Rueter: Methinks Don Callis’ courtship of OC was just a distraction all along. Trent joins the Family, and gets his win back from their Dynamite match earlier this month. Pick: Trent Beretta

Geno Mrosko: Just please let it be an absolute war. Pick: Orange Cassidy

Claire Elizabeth: Orange gets a nice big win and gives everybody want they want in the post-match and I cry about Chuck Taylor’s career being over. Pick: Orange Cassidy

Cain A. Knight: Orange is losing this one, it’s just a matter of whether it’s because Trent joins the Don Callis family, or Rocky Romero turns heel. Pick: Trent Beretta

Manolo H. Pizzazz: I’m picking Trent with a twist. He wants a straight-up wrestling match, and that leads me to believe he will instigate Cassidy into losing his cool for a disqualification. Pick: Trent Beretta

Marcus Benjamin: Orange gets his revenge and he won’t squeeze gently. Pick: Orange Cassidy

Kyle Decker: There’s too much weirdness going on with the Callis Family that I think that ends up costing OC. Pick: Trent Beretta

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Thunder Rosa vs. Deonna Purrazzo

[Editor’s note: The Zero Hour matches were booked after some contributors submitted their picks, so we’re a little light on predictions for these.]

Sean Rueter: Credit where credit is due… AEW has a bunch of distinct women’s feuds going on these days! As for this one, while she has been in a World title feud, it feels like the Virtuosa has only beaten the undercarders and lackeys of the roster since becoming All Elite. Time to beat a former champ. Pick: Deonna Purrazzo

Geno Mrosko: Hmmm. Pick: Thunder Rosa

Claire Elizabeth: Uhhhh when in doubt babyface wins I guess. Pick: Thunder Rosa

Cain A. Knight: Thunder already has a win over Deonna from last month’s Rampage that very few people watched, so now it’s time to go 50/50. Pick: Deonna Purrazzo

Manolo H. Pizzazz: This feud feels like it’s heading to a hardcore finale. But first, the Virtuosa needs to even the score in an AEW ring. Pick: Deonna Purrazzo

Kyle Decker: This is a tough call because I see these women in the same spot on the card. Plus they both recently lost title matches so it’s not as if one has to look strong for a future one. Given Thunder Rosa is more established in AEW, I’ll go with Deonna to establish some cred. Pick: Deonna Purrazzo

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The Acclaimed & Daddy Ass vs. Brian Cage & Gates of Agony

Sean Rueter: Lots at stake here… winners should almost be guaranteed a spot on the Death Before Dishonor card. Pick: The Acclaimed & Daddy Ass

Claire Elizabeth: Fuck ‘em up ???, fuck ‘em up! Pick: ??? [context]

Cain A. Knight: The team name “Cage of Agony” pretty much ensures these guys aren’t getting pushed. Pick: Daddy Ass & The Acclaimed

Manolo H. Pizzazz: A win by The Acclaimed keeps everything at the status quo for these wrestlers. A loss by The Acclaimed opens up possibilities to explore. Pick: Brian Cage & Gates of Agony

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That’s who we’ve got. Who are you taking, Cagesiders?