Garin said the weekend online poll showed that Trump holds a narrow lead in a head-to-head contest, similar to the one he held in a survey conducted in May. The results from a trial poll that included third party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also closely matched those from May.
Garin predicted that public and private polling over the coming weeks would show the same result.
“We think this measures the impact of the debate and really the full impact of the debate,” Garin said in an interview Monday. “Those voters who were concerned about his performance are sticking by him in overwhelming numbers and just think that Trump is a completely unacceptable alternative.”
The Biden team’s broad argument is that the president’s halting debate performance told voters nothing they did not already know. Many who support Biden, his aides say, have long recognized that he is showing signs of age, but nonetheless they either appreciate his accomplishments or are repelled by the prospect of a second Trump presidency.
“What we are learning is that the president’s age was already priced into the decision-making process before the debate, and the debate itself did not cause any substantial reconsideration of the voters’ decision-making process,” Garin said.
Garin’s polling memo noted that some of Biden’s 2020 voters did feel more negative toward him after the debate. But large majorities of those voters continue to support him in trial heats, and Garin said they responded favorably when shown a video of Biden’s more energetic performance on the trail Friday in North Carolina, which the campaign has used in a television ad.
Many Democratic donors and elected leaders say they are awaiting public and private polling to decide whether to publicly push for Biden to consider leaving the race amid the widespread party concern after last week’s debate. Biden’s team had pushed for the debate as an early opportunity to show the president’s command of the job, but that strategy backfired given a performance where his speech often meandered or trailed off.
Independent polls before and after the debate showed that large majorities of the country do not think Biden is up for the job or has the mental competence to carry it out. A CBS-YouGov poll this weekend did not report on support for president, but it found 72 percent of voters say Biden does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, up from 65 percent in June.
The Biden campaign poll of 1,805 registered voters was conducted Saturday and Sunday in seven battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Garin said the sample was drawn using opt-in online survey panels for both the weekend poll and the one from May.
Some studies have found that surveys conducted with opt-in online panels produce less accurate results than those using random sampling.
Garin’s memo said the multicandidate trial was identical to May polling, while the head-to-head numbers showed a slight decline for Trump. Biden’s overall favorability was unchanged between the May and post-debate poll, while Trump’s favorability number, which was already higher than Biden’s, rose slightly.
Garin said the post-debate poll also showed that Biden continues to have other advantages over Trump, polling better on questions about whom voters trust to protect democracy and to protect what is best for the country over what is best for the candidate himself.
Scott Clement contributed to this report.
Elaine Hadley is a dedicated journalist covering the ever-evolving landscape of U.S. news. With a keen interest in politics and a commitment to uncovering the truth, she provides insightful commentary and in-depth analysis on domestic issues. When not reporting, Elaine enjoys exploring the diverse cultures and landscapes of the United States.
