Connor Bedard expectations, Calder picks and rookie surprises: Pronman vs. Wheeler

The Athletic has live coverage of Connor Bedard’s debut and the Blackhawks vs. Penguins matchup

By Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler and Max Bultman

The start of the NHL season is all about hope.

And that hope can take many forms depending on what team you cheer for. Maybe you’re hoping this is the year your team finally makes the playoffs — or brings home the Stanley Cup. Maybe you’re already thinking about the draft lottery, and what it could yield. But no matter your rooting interest, odds are that a big part of your hope for the 2023-24 season hinges on a rookie — whether it’s as a supplemental piece that keeps your team salary cap compliant, or as a potential savior. Does anyone come to mind (Chicago Blackhawks)?

So, with the season set to kick off on Tuesday, we brought in The Athletic’s prospect writers, Corey Pronman and Scott Wheeler, to break down their expectations for Connor Bedard, get their Calder picks on record and hear who they’re circling as a potential surprise difference-maker for their team.

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Max Bultman: Let’s start with the one on everyone’s mind: Connor Bedard. Corey, what can the No. 1 overall pick produce in year 1 in Chicago?

Corey Pronman: Initially I was thinking 25 goals and 50-55 points given the not-so-great amount of talent around him, but since it seems like he will be given every opportunity to be a go-to guy and run their power play I would bump those up: 28 goals and 63 points is my not-so-official projection. His situation reminds me a little of Steven Stamkos in his rookie season, who scored 23 goals and 46 points, although I think Bedard is ahead of Stamkos at the same age.

Bultman: Scott, what say you? Can Bedard clear Corey’s bar?

Scott Wheeler: I think there were scenarios, had he landed with someone like a Trevor Zegras or a Johnny Gaudreau, where he might have been in the conversation for a Connor McDavid-type rookie year (48 in 45) — or at least close to a point per game. But I wrote in a recent mailbag I believed that because it was Chicago, with how little they have up front around him outside of Taylor Hall, he’d settle closer to the Auston Matthews (69 in 80) and Nathan MacKinnon (63 in 82) bar.

I’ll stick with that for now, though I do think he scores 30+ goals and I don’t think 70-something points is out of the question. This preseason showed us a couple of things. The first is that he was forcing it a little and he’s going to have to learn to — to use a basketball analogy — play hero ball a little less. The second is that they’re going to play him a ton as he figures that out. Long shifts on the PP; 3-on-3 OT; O-zone matchups. And if he’s playing 20-21 minutes a night, he’s going to get his.

Read more: NHL 2023-24 awards predictions: McDavid’s top Hart Trophy challenger? Plus the big Hellebuyck trade question

Bultman: Obvious follow-up: Does he win the Calder Trophy?

Wheeler: Yes. If he stays healthy, it’s his I think even if Logan Cooley, Adam Fantilli, Luke Hughes and Co. all play to their best-case outcomes.

Watch out for Devon Levi, though. If the Buffalo Sabres make the playoffs, he’s going to be one of the biggest reasons why and get a lot of votes. I think Levi is ready for that.

Bultman: Corey, do you agree? How would you handicap the race at this stage?

Pronman: Bedard is the heavy favorite. I would take him versus the field, but I don’t think he’s a no-doubter to win the Calder. Fantilli, Hughes, Leo Carlsson and Cooley have better players around them and if any of them really hit the ground running and elevate into a premium role on their teams they could push him.

Levi is an interesting one. He would need to play something like 55-65 games at a quality level, for me, to win the Calder and I would be a little surprised if he got that kind of load as a player with only a handful of professional starts.

Bultman: Last year we saw some surprise stories enter the mix. Matias Maccelli comes to mind, as do Stuart Skinner and Noah Cates. Who’s your pick for a surprise rookie standout this season?

Wheeler: I’m not sure if Bobby Brink would qualify as a surprise as a second-rounder who was a Hobey Baker finalist two years ago and led the NCAA in scoring, but he spent the full season in the AHL last year, has dealt with some injury troubles, and needed an excellent preseason/training camp to put himself in the position that’s now in front of him. I’m a big fan, there’s an opportunity on a rebuilding Philadelphia Flyers team, and he looked outstanding the last couple of weeks. Everything would have to continue to go right for him to get into the conversation, but I could see him working his way into the fringes of ballot consideration maybe.

It looks like Joel Hofer’s going to start as the backup to a hot and cold Jordan Binnington as well, so there’s a quote-unquote lesser name who could maybe play his way into enough starts to get down-ballot love à la Skinner/Jeremy Swayman. Lukas Dostal could similarly apply with the Anaheim Ducks. Goalies always lurk in Calder contention.

Pronman: For those questions, I tend to think of guys who are a little bit older but could play real roles right away. Wyatt Kaiser in Chicago or Luke Evangelista with the Nashville Predators for example. Maybe Mackie Samoskevich with the Florida Panthers if he makes that team with a strong forward group around him. I don’t want to pour more oil on this fire already but I do like Cole McWard, who could make the Vancouver Canucks, and I could see him be a surprise this season.

Philly forwards Tyson Foerster and Brink could be potential candidates for the same reasons but I’ve been skeptical of those players. I think if they are in your top six you are in tough.

Bultman: I know it’s a fool’s errand to read too much into the preseason, or a few weeks’ worth of games anywhere, but I wonder if there are any 2023 draft picks you’re starting to wonder if you were wrong about after seeing their play so far this season.

Pronman: Two smaller OHL players are ones I’m wondering about. Easton Cowan, Toronto’s first-round pick, and while not 2023, I have been thinking a lot about Boston Bruins 2022 pick Matthew Poitras. Both of them have had very good camps. I saw Cowan’s compete sense and speed in junior, but I didn’t think the offense for a small guy was high-end. We will see how well it translates when he becomes a full-time pro but it seems like he has shown offense against better players to go with the great compete.

Poitras is something I didn’t see coming at all as he may break camp with the Bruins. I saw a skilled playmaker in junior without NHL speed or size and thought the skill wasn’t elite enough to compensate. I may have been off on the last point but we will see with time.

Wheeler: Cowan’s probably one for me as well. You could really see what we’re seeing now start to develop in the OHL playoffs last year, too, when there were nights when he was the driver (not just with his pace and competitiveness but with his skill) on that line with Denver Barkey and Ryan Winterton, but I didn’t give him enough of a boost on my final list.

A second one might be Nate Danielson. I don’t think I got the evaluation of the makeup/tools wrong, but he has strengthened his case as a worthy pick at No. 9 (although Zach Benson, who was my BPA there, has been excellent with the Sabres as well), and I’ll be watching him closely to see if there might be a little more upside there than I thought.

Bultman: Last one: How about a prediction for a recent lottery team that breaks through this year into the playoffs?

Wheeler: We’ve just submitted our regular season playoff predictions here at The Athletic and I suppose the most recent lottery team I had in my 16 playoff teams was the New Jersey Devils (Simon Nemec, 2022). But they’ve already broken through (how about that as a reminder that they went from 27 wins to 52 in one season!), so that feels like cheating.

To pick another, the only other team that has been involved in the lottery recently that I had in my 16 was the Ottawa Senators (see: 2021). And even then, I debated the Pittsburgh Penguins for that eighth spot in the East. I suppose that’s indicative of just how hard it is to go from the lottery to the playoffs. The Ducks, San Jose Sharks, Blackhawks, Montreal Canadiens and Flyers are still a way off, and the Detroit Red Wings, Columbus Blue Jackets and Arizona Coyotes still feel like outsiders to me.

Pronman: I was hoping to pick the Senators but I’m fine going with the boring pick in Buffalo, which is everyone’s sexy playoff pick this fall. I have concerns about how well they will keep pucks out of their net but the offensive talent on that team is excellent and they were on the cusp last season. I think both Buffalo and Ottawa can make the playoffs, and this is the year I think we see a real changing of the guard in the Eastern Conference.

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic. Photos of Devon Levi and Connor Bedard: Joel Auerbach, Michael Reaves / Getty Images)