NFL QB EPA rankings: From Lamar Jackson’s accuracy to Josh Allen’s first-half blues

There are only two former NFL MVPs currently playing with a third on the mend in New York. The two on the field are in the thick of the MVP discussion once again.

Plus, quite a few top quarterbacks have leveled out as we’re more than a third of the way through the 2023 regular season. And I’m pretty sure $230 million guaranteed shouldn’t buy No. 32-ranked production.

Here’s my weekly look at how quarterbacks stand using traditional statistics like passer rating, along with advanced metrics like Expected Points Added per dropback, via TruMedia, to provide a number-based outlook of the state of the position.

I’ll also give a sneak peek at the upcoming matchups using EPA per dropback for the quarterbacks and the defenses they will face in Week 8.

Nos. 1-8

Now let’s see if Brock Purdy can handle some extended adversity. It’s only the second time as San Francisco 49ers starter that he’s tallied consecutive weeks with a passer rating below 100.0. Shows you just how well he’s played 12 regular-season starts into his career. Of course Purdy came on strong starting last season as he ranked fifth among all QBs in EPA per during the span of Weeks 10-18. Now that he’s in concussion protocol, the Niners could turn to Sam Darnold. And where did Darnold stand during that span as the Carolina Panthers’ starter Third, only behind Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes.

Maybe the Miami Dolphins offense can be slowed down. Tua Tagovailoa has produced two of his worst performances against the two toughest defenses the Dolphins have faced this year. He yielded his worst EPA rate and passer rating of 2023 in the team’s Week 7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Similarly, Tua amassed a -0.11 EPA rate and 92.8 passer rating in the team’s Week 4 loss to the Buffalo Bills. In the five other games, he’s been superb with a 0.44 EPA rate and 118.7 passer rating.

Only Lamar Jackson’s monster day topped Mahomes on the Week 7 leaderboard. Mahomes scorched the Los Angeles Chargers, primarily in the first half, with a league-leading 0.84 EPA rate in the first two quarters. The Kansas City Chiefs passer tallied his best passer rating since Super Bowl LVII. It’s the third week in a row he’s completed at least 75.0 percent of his passes and he’s tallied a 0.34 EPA rate in that span.

Josh Allen put the Buffalo Bills in position to win against the New England Patriots with two scoring drives in the back half of the fourth quarter. But it’s the third consecutive week in which he’s been in comeback mode after a rough first half. His first-half numbers in Weeks 5-7: -0.22 EPA rate (27th among 33 qualified), 64.7 passer rating (29th) and -0.74 EPA rate vs. blitz (32nd).

Justin Herbert produced his worst EPA rate and passer rating of the season in the Chargers’ loss to the Chiefs. It was the fifth-worst passer rating of his career. He’s stalled out his last three games, posting a 0.03 EPA rate and 75.9 passer rating during the stretch. In Weeks 1-3, Herbert yielded a 0.23 EPA rate (third) and 112.9 passer rating (second). Maybe that broken finger on his left hand is affecting him. Or maybe the Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys put the clamps on him.

You know Matthew Stafford will sling it around. But you don’t know what you’re getting from him statistically each week. In the Los Angeles Rams’ three wins, he’s produced a 0.32 EPA rate and 94.4 passer rating. In the Rams’ four losses, he has a-0.05 EPA rate and 74.3 passer rating.

It’s been a minute since we’ve seen numbers from Goff like the ones we saw Sunday. The Detroit Lions passer yielded his worst rates since a shutout loss to the Patriots in Week 5 last season. It’s only the third negative EPA rate for Goff since Week 10 last season, which was when he started his hot streak.

Nos. 9-16

Jimmy Garoppolo, come back soon. Brian Hoyer had one of those passer rating days (37.1) in which it would have been better if he just threw every pass into the ground for an incompletion. That would result in a 39.6 passer rating.

Jackson has been as accurate as he’s ever been in his career. The Ravens QB has never finished with higher than a 64.4 completion percentage. Through seven games, he’s amassed a 71.0 completion percentage. Only once this season has Jackson not completed 70.0 percent of his passes in a game. Jackson only achieved that percentage in four of his 12 starts last season and twice in the 11 games in which he was passer rating qualified in 2021. He only topped his Week 7 passer rating in two perfect 158.3 outings in 2019, his MVP season.

The Geno Smith thrill ride keeps on rolling. In Week 7, the Seattle Seahawks quarterback essentially matched his Week 2 outing against the Lions in which he produced a 0.30 EPA rate and 116.3 passer rating. In the three games between then and Week 7, Smith compiled a -0.10 EPA rate and 81.6 passer rating. At least Seattle went 2-1 over that stretch.

Sure seems like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers go as Baker Mayfield goes. In the team’s three wins, Mayfield yielded a 0.21 EPA rate and 108.6 passer rating. In the three losses (Tampa Bay has lost three of its last four games), Mayfield tallied a -0.12 EPA rate and 70.5 passer rating.

Jalen Hurts looked rather unflappable despite a lost fumble and pick-six off a batted pass in the Eagles’ win over the Dolphins. It’s unusual to find a team that’s 6-1 with its quarterback sitting in the middle in these metrics. It also might be scary for the rest of the league since we’ve watched Hurts play better overall.

Maybe Kirk Cousins took offense to me saying he’s the same guy as Derek Carr in my 2024 free agent stock watch last week. The Minnesota Vikings passer played like a top QB in the Week 7 win over the 49ers. The showing marked the first positive EPA rate and passer rating north of 100.0 for Cousins since Week 2.

Jordan Love bounced back a bit in Week 7 after a three-game span during which he compiled a -0.23 EPA rate and 57.7 passer rating. The Green Bay Packers QB also had his best completion percentage of the season at 67.7 percent in the loss to the Denver Broncos.

Nos. 17-24

Russell Wilson produced very similar numbers to Love in the same game. A solid rebound for Wilson as well coming off the worst EPA rate of his career in Week 6 against the Chiefs.

Hard not to applaud the Indianapolis Colts’ Gardner Minshew for chalking up excellent numbers against the Cleveland Browns, the No. 1 ranked defensive-EPA-per-dropback team entering Week 7.

Trevor Lawrence didn’t let a knee injury slow him down against the New Orleans Saints. The Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback has amassed a 0.05 EPA rate and 100.2 passer rating during the team’s four-game winning streak.

The wheels are falling off for the Arizona Cardinals’ Joshua Dobbs. In Weeks 2-4, Dobbs had a 0.25 EPA rate and 106.1 passer rating. In Weeks 5-7, Dobbs compiled a -0.27 EPA rate and 61.3 passer rating. The end is probably near for Dobbs as starter with Kyler Murray seemingly returning soon.

The Atlanta Falcons’ Desmond Ridder produced the best EPA rate of his career in the team’s win over the Bucs. It’s also the third time this season that Ridder’s passer rating finished north of 107.0. These numbers were similar to his Week 5 outing against the Houston Texans (0.20 EPA, 111.2 passer rating). But in Weeks 3, 4 and 6, Ridder’s numbers were rough (-0.24 EPA rate and 66.7 passer rating).

It continues to be an overall bad look for Derek Carr in New Orleans. His Week 7 passer rating was only his third worst with the Saints. His worst (65.5) actually came in a Week 2 win against the Carolina Panthers.

Tyson Bagent didn’t seem overwhelmed filling in for the injured Justin Fields against the Raiders. The Chicago Bears undrafted rookie has plenty of proven QBs looking up at him in the Week 7 rankings.

The Washington Commanders’ Sam Howell produced his second-worst rates of 2023 in the team’s loss to the New York Giants. Not good when you’re only better than Hoyer and, arguably, P.J. Walker in Week 7. This coming off the top passer-rating output of his career (119.7) in Week 6 against the Falcons.

Nos. 25-32

Four quarterbacks in this bottom portion were on a bye week. Daniel Jones missed the Giants game with an injured neck. Deshaun Watson exited early out of precaution for his injured shoulder.

In the win over the Bills, Mac Jones played his best game since yielding a 0.53 EPA rate and 128.1 passer rating in the Patriots’ 50-10 romp over the Jaguars in Week 17 of the 2021 season. It’s only the fourth time in 18 games that Jones has yielded a positive EPA rate.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have won four of their last five games. Kenny Pickett carries a -0.07 EPA rate and 90.9 passer rating during the streak. I guess whatever works. His 97.1 passer rating in the Week 7 win over the Rams was the second-highest rate of his career.

Tyrod Taylor threw two touchdown passes in the second quarter and that was enough to secure a Giants win over the Commanders. I’m sure Giants fans are wondering why Daniel Jones can’t play like that. Jones did so in one half of one game this season (Week 2 at Arizona).

Walker wasn’t the reason the Browns won without Deshaun Watson for most of Week 7. In fact, you might say the Browns won in spite of Walker’s play in both Weeks 6 and 7. Your mega millions QB ranks last in EPA through seven weeks of the season and yet the Browns are 4-2. Thank you, Myles Garrett.

Week 8 defense vs. QB EPA matchups

*Dealing with injury issues heading into Week 8.

(Photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)