NHL playoff tiers and buyer/seller 1.0: Assessing each team at Thanksgiving

For NHL teams, American Thanksgiving isn’t all about turkey, gravy and Black Friday sales. Roughly one-quarter through the regular-season schedule, it’s the point by which general managers traditionally want to know what kind of team they have — and to figure out a course forward based on that.

Last year by this point, seven of the eight eventual postseason teams in the East were already in playoff position, and six of eight were in the West. The rest of the way, only the Florida Panthers (who had a not-shabby .550 points percentage on Turkey Day), Minnesota Wild (.526) and Edmonton Oilers (.500) moved into the field, with the Detroit Red Wings (.632), Calgary Flames (.553) and St. Louis Blues (.526) falling out.

So, is it too early to talk about buyers and sellers with the trade deadline still three-and-a-half months away? Or playoff tiers with nearly five months left in the regular season? Maybe … but history says that the trends we’ve seen so far will mostly continue.

To mark the occasion and get a sense of what those trends are, The Athletic asked its NHL staff two questions about each team this week: 1) How confident are you in the team’s playoff chances, on a scale of zero (not happening) to five (it’s a lock)? And 2) Will the team be a buyer or a seller at the deadline?

Here’s what our writers said.

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Record: 9-10-0
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious seller

Analysis: Their surprising start that was powered by several comeback wins has worn off and reality is setting in as they dig further into the meat grinder portion of the schedule. But with teams like Edmonton, Calgary and Seattle displaying erratic results and other teams hovering in the mushy middle, there is a path to hang around the Western Conference wild-card picture if they get back to some winning ways. Anaheim isn’t ready to be a buyer, but the days of moving out UFAs it won’t re-sign or other flotsam and jetsam for assets should be coming to a close. Veteran scorer Adam Henrique still feels like he could be on the trade table, but maybe rugged defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin — who has been a nice partner for impressive rookie and fellow Moscow native Pavel Mintyukov — isn’t so easy to part with at the deadline. GM Pat Verbeek has been very active in his first two deadlines, but he could be relatively quiet in the spring. — Eric Stephens

Record: 8-9-2
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: Philosophically, the Coyotes turned a corner last summer and strategically added contributing NHLers (Sean Durzi, Jason Zucker, Matt Dumba, others) to their stable of emerging youngsters, with a view to challenging for a playoff spot in 2023-24. So far, it’s working. They’re in the thick of things. If they stay in the race, and need a supplemental piece to cement their place in the standings, they have the assets to get something done. And if they sink a little, then pending UFAs such as Dumba can be moved. In short, everything hinges on what happens over the next 35 games or so. — Eric Duhatschek

Record: 14-1-3
Playoff tier: It’s a lock
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: The Bruins do not have much cap space. So unless they find themselves in a situation to use long-term injured reserve as they did last year with Taylor Hall and Nick Foligno, they will not have much room to add expensive players. But they project to need help up front, either at center or right wing. — Fluto Shinzawa

Record: 8-9-2
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: The Sabres are on the outside looking in at the playoff picture right now after a sluggish start to the season. In theory, they should be aggressive buyers given their cap space and deep pool of prospects. But it’s hard to bank on them taking that approach when general manager Kevyn Adams brought back the same forward group from a year ago and added two defensemen who have been on the third pair. If Adams is going to have an aggressive trade deadline, the Sabres need to stay in the playoff picture until then. — Matthew Fairburn

Calgary Flames

Record: 7-9-3
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Buyer or seller? Cautious seller

Analysis: The Flames have a handful of pending UFAs in Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, Nikita Zadorov and Chris Tanev. If Calgary commits to a retool, or rebuild (whatever you want to call it), those are the pieces that will fetch significant returns. So, why cautious? Calgary doesn’t seem to be in a rush to sell these pieces right now. We’ll know more about the Flames, and their eagerness to sell, as they push through to the Christmas break with games against Vegas, Colorado, Dallas and other heavy hitters. — Julian McKenzie

Record: 11-7-0
Playoff tier: Looks like a good bet
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: The Hurricanes have looked uncharacteristically inconsistent to start the season and sit on the edge of the early season playoff bubble. I don’t think Carolina is in danger of missing the postseason, though another key injury or continued up-and-down play could jeopardize the Hurricanes’ five-year playoff streak. Assuming they reach the deadline in decent shape, the Hurricanes are poised to be one of few contenders with salary cap space and could be a buyer — though the front office isn’t much for rentals and impacting the team’s future with overly aggressive moves. — Cory Lavalette

Record: 5-12-0
Playoff tier: Not happening
Buyer or seller? Cautious seller

Analysis: If the Blackhawks had more attractive players to put on the market, they’d be more aggressive. They’re obviously still playing the long game here, angling for another top-five pick. But the likes of pending UFAs Tyler Johnson, Nick Foligno, Corey Perry and Petr Mrazek are unlikely to fetch much more than a mid-round pick, so it’ll likely be a much quieter deadline than last year’s, when Patrick Kane headlined the offerings. A savvy, beloved veteran such as Foligno or Perry might be coveted by a contender, but the Blackhawks might value a couple more months of their mentorship of Connor Bedard more than, say, a fourth- or fifth-round pick. — Mark Lazerus

Colorado Avalanche

Record: 12-6-0
Playoff tier: It’s a lock
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: The Avalanche will add at the deadline, but they won’t have a ton of salary cap space to add huge pieces. And though general manager Chris MacFarland has all his first-round picks to work with, Colorado’s prospect pool could use bolstering. The team improbably needs a top-six forward, and it could potentially look to find an extra defenseman, though Caleb Jones has looked good as a fill-in so far this season. — Peter Baugh

Record: 5-11-4
Playoff tier: Long shot
Buyer or seller? Aggressive seller

Analysis: We’re a long way from March, but this season is shaping up to be another long one in Columbus. It would take a miracle at this point for the Blue Jackets to hit the trade deadline with any meaning left in the season, but it’s unclear how radical they might get with their moves. Do they unload one or both of their struggling, high-paid forwards in Johnny Gaudreau ($9.75 million) and Patrik Laine ($8.7 million)? Gaudreau has a no-move clause and Laine has a modified no-trade, so it won’t be easy. Perhaps the bigger question: Will current GM Jarmo Kekäläinen still be calling the shots at the trade deadline, or will the Blue Jackets have a different roster boss? — Aaron Portzline

Dallas Stars

Record: 12-4-2
Playoff tier: Looks like a good bet
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: The Stars are in a great spot as an organization and they’ve gotten to this point by not overpaying at the trade deadline very often, if at all — much to the dismay of the fan base at times. Given how long the season is and all that can happen, it’s hard to call any team a firm lock for anything, but the Stars are in that territory with the playoffs and are firm title contenders. They will look to add at the deadline, but will likely be smart, knowing what they having coming in their top three prospects. — Saad Yousuf

Detroit Red Wings

Record: 9-6-3
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Buyer or seller? Cautious seller

Analysis: The Red Wings have done most of their selling already, but Steve Yzerman has shown (including last year) that he won’t hesitate to sell even if his team is at the fringes of a playoff race, and so far that looks like the direction they’re headed: likely on the outside of a bubble looking in. Pending UFAs David Perron, Daniel Sprong and Shayne Gostisbehere would stand out as desirable candidates for contenders, as well as one of Detroit’s three goaltenders. If the Red Wings are on the right side of the playoff bubble at the time of the deadline, however, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them hold tight, considering none of their pending UFAs are likely to draw the kind of returns they received last season for Filip Hronek and Tyler Bertuzzi, both of whom garnered first-round picks. — Max Bultman

Edmonton Oilers

Record: 5-12-1
Playoff tier: 50-50
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: The Oilers should be an aggressive buyer. They’ve played in five playoff series over the last two years, they’re built to win now, and they employ two of the best players in the league in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Just look at the standings, though. They’re really going to need to catch fire for management to push the chips in. A few more weeks of losing ground and it’s more likely that relatively inexpensive players with limited term on their contracts such as Warren Foegele and Cody Ceci are sold off. — Daniel Nugent-Bowman

Florida Panthers

Record: 12-6-1
Playoff tier: It’s a lock
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: The Panthers kept it together with Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour on the shelf. They might’ve done more than that, actually; Florida is in solid position as the No. 2 or No. 3 team in the Atlantic. Their cap situation (about $2 million in projected deadline day space) will make big-time additions a challenge, but we’ve seen Bill Zito manage through that in the past. Either way, they almost certainly won’t have to sneak into the postseason this time around. — Sean Gentille

Record: 11-3-3
Playoff tier: It’s a lock
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: I’m bullish on making the Kings a playoff lock at this stage. They might be third in the Pacific Division at the moment, but they’re tied for fourth in the NHL in points percentage. Missing the postseason would be a massive fail. But I’m not as bullish on them being an aggressive buyer. They’re deep as it is and unless Cam Talbot really regresses after his terrific start in goal, I’m not yet seeing them having to beef up in net. Perhaps they could use a middle-six winger to fill the hole an injured Viktor Arvidsson currently leaves, but if Arvidsson does return for the stretch run and resembles the player he was last season, he’ll serve as their deadline acquisition. I don’t think GM Rob Blake is eager to surrender more quality assets like their 2024 first-round pick or one of their best prospects at this time when their new Stanley Cup contention window is just starting to open. — Eric Stephens

Minnesota Wild

Record: 5-8-4
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Buyer or seller? Cautious seller

Analysis: Unlike last season, when the Wild had accrued enough cap space to make four trades at the deadline, it’s going to be awfully hard for them to add this March. They barely have enough cap space to afford one call-up at this point. On the other hand, they won’t be hard sellers after opting to extend the contracts of Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno and Ryan Hartman, who were entering the final year of their deals, in training camp. That gives them limited options to sell: pending unrestricted free agents Brandon Duhaime, Pat Maroon, Marc-Andre Fleury, Alex Goligoski and Zach Bogosian and pending restricted free agent Connor Dewar. — Michael Russo

Record: 8-9-2
Playoff tier: Not happening
Buyer or seller? Aggressive seller

Analysis: The Canadiens remain in asset-acquisition mode and even if there are blips of success along the way, they are unlikely to derail that overall building plan. Impending UFAs Sean Monahan and Tanner Pearson should be available, and perhaps goaltender Sam Montembeault as well, though the Canadiens have begun talks on an extension for him. Christian Dvorak and David Savard have one year left on their contracts after this one, if the Canadiens wanted to get really aggressive. They would be open to many possibilities. — Arpon Basu

Record: 8-10-0
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Buyer or seller? Cautious seller

Analysis: If I could go halfway between “bubble team” and “long shot” on the playoff chances, that would be most accurate. This team needs to work to stay on the bubble. As the deadline approaches, there’s a decent chance the Predators will be out of it, making it a perfect time to continue the rebuilding process. A veteran such as defenseman Tyson Barrie might end up turning into more draft capital for a team that needs as much as possible. — Joe Rexrode

Record: 8-8-1
Playoff tier: Looks like a good bet
Buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

Analysis: With the Penguins’ resurgence and some veteran teams still in the mix, the Devils aren’t a lock for the playoffs after an iffy start. But considering all the skill in this lineup (especially as the team gets closer to full health), New Jersey is still a very safe bet. Since there are some clear roster flaws, it won’t be a surprise to see management get active to address them. The Devils may add another bottom-four defenseman who can kill penalties, and depending on how the next few months unfold, a goalie boost could be a consideration as well. — Shayna Goldman

Record: 7-6-5
Playoff tier: 50-50
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: Lou Lamoriello sell? Come on now. He reinvested heavily in the same group the past couple summers and added Bo Horvat in a big move last season. Unless the Islanders sink like a stone in the next month, it’s hard to imagine Lamoriello throwing in the towel on 2023-24. — Arthur Staple

Record: 13-3-1
Playoff tier: It’s a lock
Buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

Analysis: Chris Drury hasn’t held back in either of his first two seasons as GM, adding four players at the 2021-22 deadline and a couple big names (Vladimir Tarasenko, Patrick Kane) last year. The Rangers are in early Metro Division champion position. They don’t have much cap flexibility but a chance to win a Cup trumps everything at MSG. — Arthur Staple

Record: 8-7-0
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: This is a really hard one to gauge right now for a couple reasons. For starters, the Senators are right up next to the salary cap ceiling and still have to sign Shane Pinto at some point. So they might need to make a move to free up space to get that done before Pinto is eligible to return in the middle of January. And right now, the Senators have put themselves in a spot where they probably are considered a playoff bubble team. So until we get some clarity on where they belong in the standings, it’s hard to slap a “buyer” or “seller” label on them. If they do stumble in the next couple of months, there is a scenario where they become a seller and move assets such as Vladimir Tarasenko and Dominik Kubalik, who are set to be UFAs next summer. But if they hang around the playoff picture, they probably won’t be too aggressive. Pinto re-joining the fold will almost be like adding a key piece ahead of the deadline, so it’s hard to see them doing much beyond that. Maybe they add a depth forward to help on the fourth line, but the other parts of their roster seem pretty set. — Ian Mendes

Record: 10-8-1
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Buyer or seller? Cautious seller

Analysis: Even if they remain in the mix for a playoff spot — which, based on their start and the way they are playing, could very well happen — the Flyers are not going to deviate from their plan of looking primarily to the future. That doesn’t automatically mean, though, that they’re simply going to try and unload all of their pending free agents for prospects/picks. There’s an argument to be made that the Flyers are already ahead of where they expected to be during this so-called rebuild, and might determine that some of the players they expected to be here briefly actually end up sticking around. — Kevin Kurz

Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 9-9-0
Playoff tier: 50-50
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: GM Kyle Dubas isn’t going to chance irking Sidney Crosby, who can sign an extension this summer, by selling off core players. And former GM Ron Hextall handed out so many no-movement clauses that trading big names would be a challenge for Dubas even if Penguins were buried going into deadline. But, for the sake of discussion, let’s say the Penguins are way out of a playoff spot going into deadline week. What might they do? I wouldn’t rule out a trade of Jake Guentzel, despite his closeness to Crosby. Guentzel is on an expiring deal, and there is no indication he’s part of Dubas’ bigger picture. He’d probably command a decent return. But really, Dubas is likelier to add than sell, even if to set up the Penguins better for next season. — Rob Rossi

Record: 3-15-1
Playoff tier: Not happening
Buyer or seller? Aggressive seller

Analysis: This season is going to be a major struggle and involve a lot of tough moments, but the good thing is GM Mike Grier’s pointed address to the team has resulted in a renewed effort to at least make opponents work for their wins. It seems to have awakened some potential free agents. Can he still build value for players like Anthony Duclair, Mike Hoffman, Kevin Labanc or even goalie Kaapo Kähkönen? That is still a tough task for a team going nowhere. It hasn’t helped that Logan Couture hasn’t played at all or that Alexander Barabanov, another impending UFA, is also sidelined. His best chip, Tomas Hertl, has a full no-move clause and is only two years into an eight-year extension. It won’t be easy for Grier, but he can still try fleshing out his 2024 draft, which already has two firsts (including potentially the No. 1 overall pick) and two seconds. — Eric Stephens

Seattle Kraken

Record: 8-8-5
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Buyer or seller? Cautious seller

Analysis: After a dream-like second season, the Seattle Kraken’s conversion rate has regressed and the club is positioned for an uphill climb to repeat as a Stanley Cup playoff team. Seattle will have to be mindful of the future, but can’t afford to wave the white flag on this season either, given how crucial sustained success is in their fledgling hockey market. — Thomas Drance

St. Louis Blues

Record: 10-7-1
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Buyer or seller? Cautious seller

Analysis: I think the Blues are a 50-50 toss-up to make the playoffs, but MoneyPuck had them around 34 percent this week, so we’ll put them on the bubble. They’ve lost games to Dallas, Colorado, Winnipeg, Vancouver and L.A. at the top of the Western Conference, but I like their chances against the potential wild-card field: Seattle, Anaheim, Arizona and Calgary. If they’re in the playoff conversation, general manager Doug Armstrong may hang onto his pending unrestricted free agents because they won’t fetch as much as Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko did last year, but I still think they could be sellers. — Jeremy Rutherford

Record: 9-6-5
Playoff tier: Looks like a good bet
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: With Boston still thriving and Florida weathering their early-season injuries better than expected, the path to the playoffs isn’t a total breeze for Tampa Bay. But the impending return of Andrei Vasilevskiy helps their chances; so does up-and-coming Atlantic Division teams falling short. When (or if) the Flyers and Capitals fall out of the race, teams like the Hurricanes and Devils can jump into division slots and take some competition out of the wild card race. There’s room for Tampa Bay to improve via trade, but with few assets and little cap space, they can’t be too aggressive. Low-key moves may be the ceiling. — Shayna Goldman

Record: 10-5-2
Playoff tier: Looks like a good bet
Buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

Analysis: The Leafs have a very clear need on defense, especially with the struggles and lingering uncertainty around John Klingberg, who was placed on long-term injured reserve on Thursday. GM Brad Treliving is known to like the kind of big, meaty defence that the Leafs don’t currently have. What the team needs more generally are upgrades to what’s currently available — at least one defender who can legitimately play top-four minutes in the playoffs and maybe even an additional defender who makes 40-year-old Mark Giordano more option than lock come playoff time. — Jonas Siegel

Vancouver Canucks

Record: 13-6-1
Playoff tier: Looks like a good bet
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: The Canucks are off to a fantastic start and have built themselves the type of cushion that makes them very close to a playoff lock already. Vancouver will look to upgrade its blue line. But it has to be the right fit in terms of acquisition cost, age and contract status. — Harman Dayal

Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 14-4-2
Playoff tier: It’s a lock
Buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

Analysis: The Golden Knights have cooled off lately, but still have plenty of cushion between themselves and most of the Pacific Division thanks to a blistering start. Vegas will most likely be looking to add at the deadline as usual. The question is how big? With very little cap space, I wouldn’t expect a blockbuster move. More so, it should be about adding a player who fits nicely and fulfills a need, similar to the Ivan Barbashev trade last season that worked out incredibly well. — Jesse Granger

Washington Capitals

Record: 10-4-2
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Buyer or seller? Cautious seller

Analysis: Solid as the Caps’ early-season point total is, it’s tough to imagine them staying ahead of Carolina in the Metropolitan Division, and the wild-card race would pit them against the Devils, Penguins and Lightning. Pulling it off isn’t impossible — but given how the team has outkicked its coverage thus far, it’s also not likely. Based on last season, we know Brian MacLellan won’t be shy in his deadline approach, whatever it may be. — Sean Gentille

Winnipeg Jets

Record: 11-5-2
Playoff tier: Looks like a good bet
Buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

Analysis: Winnipeg might not climb to last season’s early heights — remember they led the Western Conference a few times — but the Jets are playing a better, more sustainable brand of hockey now than they were one year ago. Winnipeg also projects to have cap space to work with at the deadline, where Kevin Cheveldayoff landed Nino Niederreiter and Vladislav Namestnikov last year. Winnipeg will most likely approach the deadline with a buyer’s mentality, even with Niederreiter, Brenden Dillon, Dylan DeMelo, and Laurent Brossoit scheduled to become UFA’s next summer. — Murat Ates

Tiers at a glance

(Top photos of Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images and Jasen Vinlove / USA Today)