Snowstorm Update: Late evening data shows where snow should top 12 inches, timeline on dangerous gusts

UPDATE: Blizzard Warning officially issued for part of Lower Michigan

Much of the evening forecast models data is in. Here’s the latest.

There aren’t any alarming changes to the modeling of this storm. The only discrepancy between some models is how far northward will a few hour period of rain make it into eastern Michigan. Most of the models show rain makes it into Detroit, Ann Arbor, Monroe, Port Huron, and the southern part of the Thumb. One of the best models shows the rain briefly making it into Flint and Saginaw.

Nothing shows rain over southwest Lower, to any significant amount over than a few brief minutes of change-over here and there.

So the big question is total snowfall. Let’s say the general snow ends by Saturday afternoon. Here is the total snow forecast through 7 p.m. Saturday.

The heavy six inch or more snow will take up a large chunk of Lower Michigan and now much of the Upper Peninsula. Draw a line from Kalamazoo to Lansing to Flint to Sandusky. North of this line let’s call it a solid six inch to 10 inch snow. The northeast wind will enhance the snow amounts over northeast and north-central Lower Michigan where up to 14 inches will be common.

It still looks like a three to five inch snow for Ann Arbor, Detroit and Monroe. It is interesting to note this snow amount in the southeast will come down in a big hurry in six hours Friday evening, along with possible thunder and lightning.

The snow starts a few hours either side of noon. The snow should be heavy across southern Michigan by 5 p.m. Friday. The heavy snow moves into northern Michigan by 8 p.m. Friday.

Here’s the radar forecast I like best in this situation.

Watch the wind gusts develop Friday afternoon and continue into Saturday morning. Note the interesting pattern of lighter wind in the “eye” of the storm. This lull in wind only lasts an hour or two at any one spot.

Winds are going to gust to 45 mph at most places, with some gusts around 55 mph around Saginaw Bay, the tip of the Thumb and the northeast shoreline. Here are some still frames of the wind gust forecast.

By 3 p.m. Friday winds will be gusting to 40 mph at many places.

At 6 p.m. Friday look for gusts out of the east up to 45 mph around the Thumb into around Mount Pleasant.

At midnight the gusts will be over 50 mph in the northeast corner and around the Grand Traverse region.

Saturday morning’s wind gusts are a whole different beast- very cold winds. This cold wind will act on the fluffier snow falling Friday night. Southeast Michigan and the Saginaw Valley will have gusts to 50 mph Saturday morning.

Blizzard conditions could occur on two different wind directions. Friday afternoon and evening’s winds will be out of the east. Saturday’s gusts will blow colder from the west and northwest.

It’s a pretty simple story on this storm. It’s a lot of precipitation and a lot of wind. Be prepared for not an historic storm but one that we have once or twice a decade.

We will have statewide dangerous travel conditions for three days out of this storm- Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Then we will have heavy lake-effect snow in more localized areas for several days into next week.

The best advice I can give you is do what you have to do by noon Friday.

What’s the chance this storm forecast could be a bust? Slim to none. The only pleasant surprise you might find is the low end of the snow range in far southeast Lower Michigan. And that’s only pleasant if you aren’t a snow-lover like 50 percent of us Michiganders.

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