Who will Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown hunt on the Pacers?

The gentlemen’s sweeps of the Heat and Cavaliers were anything but gentlemanly. Behind those 4-1 series wins were the Celtics hunting mismatches. There weren’t elaborate X’s and O’s trying to get someone free for an open shot. It was often just ‘I’m bigger and faster and stronger and I’m going right through you.’ It wasn’t the prettiest basketball, but for a team that stressed winning in a variety of ways, they certainly found the ugliest that worked.

During the regular season, Boston ranked 12th in potential assists per game. Sure, that isn’t exactly the best quantitative measure of how beautiful the basketball was. You’d have to see Mona Lisa’s smile instead of someone telling you that they gave it a 7, but for large chunks of their 64-18 run, they effectively moved the ball to generate good shots.

You just have to compare them with their passing numbers in the postseason. Of the final four teams in the playoffs, the Celtics had the largest drop off in potential assists per game and coincidentally, the largest increase in isolation plays.

The uglification of playoff basketball

Final Four Potential Assists Potential Assists Drives Drives Isolation Isolation Defenses Faced
Final Four Potential Assists Potential Assists Drives Drives Isolation Isolation Defenses Faced
Team Regular Season Playoffs Regular Season Playoffs Regular Season Playoffs Net Rating
Celtics 46.4 38.5 39.1 39.9 9.9 13.4 5th, 7th
Pacers 49.6 48.5 56.6 51 5 5 19th, 9th
Timberwolves 41.8 38.7 52.5 42.7 8 9.1 13th, 8th
Mavericks 43.8 42.3 44.8 47.2 11.7 11.5 16th, 4th

Part of that decrease in assists is facing two of the best defenses in the league. Miami and Cleveland ranked 5th (111.5 defensive rating) and 7th (112.1) respectively; however, the Celtics averaged nearly 119 points per 100 possessions against them. Simply put, they found another way to win.

It should be no surprise that the offensive strategy tilted towards the Celtics two All-Stars. After losing Kristaps Porzingis in Game 4 in Miami, the Jays were tasked to generate offense for themselves and their teammates…but mostly for themselves.

With more playmaking and defensive responsibilities, Jayson Tatum has delivered, averaging 24.3 points (8.2 free throw attempts per game), 10.4 rebounds, and 5.8 assists, but has struggled shooting the ball (43% from the floor, 28.1% from behind the arc).

Really, the efficiency monster has been Jaylen Brown. The 23.1 points per game he’s stuffing down the throats of defenders are buoyed by his 55.4 FG%. On the road, he hit 11-of-20, 7-of-18, 13-of-17, and 9-of-15 in those wins.

Against the Heat, head coach Erik Spoelstra dared Brown to got at Tyler Herro. So, he did. Herro was overmatched from the jump, allowing Brown to hit 17-of-33 against him. However, no one had a bigger target on their back than Cleveland’s Max Strus. Brown and Tatum combined for 26-of-49 against their former teammate and abused Strus’ defense as a reliable source of offense.

Joe Mazzulla loves math and when you’re facing the Celtics, you have to make the numbers somehow work in your favor. By allowing the Jays to go one-on-one, you’re hoping to stay home on Boston’s shooters and limit their three pointers. That equation certainly hurt the Celtics in those dreaded Game 2s when Boston shot only 32 and 35 triples total — a far cry from the 42.5 they averaged in the regular season. When the Celtics aren’t hitting those threes, it gets ugly.

But then they figured out how to win ugly and they’ve done it fairly consistently over the last ten games. If the regular season is any indication, Pacers-Celtics won’t be the slog that the previous two series have been. The Celtics and Pacers were the two highest scoring teams in the league and in the five games they faced each other, Boston averaged nearly 130 points per game.

But this is the playoffs and if the game truly slows down, the Celtics might have to turn to mismatch-hunting again. Funny enough, guess who the most targeted player by Brown and Tatum was in the regular season? Former Celtics and current Pacer Aaron Nesmith. Against Crash, Brown and Tatum hit 26-of-48 (each taking exactly 24 shots).

Let’s just all be gentleman about it, shall we?

Reference

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