ORCHARD PARK – The Buffalo Bills certainly enjoyed a very Merry Christmas given how Week 16 shook out in the NFL.
Things don’t always work out for the Bills – we all know the history – but last weekend was one of those rare occasions when just about everything lined up for Buffalo in relation to the AFC playoff race.
Following the Bills’ 24-22 survival against the Chargers, in rapid fire order the Bengals, Colts, Texans, and Broncos all lost, and every one of those outcomes were helpful to Buffalo in terms of the AFC wild-card picture. At 9-6 the Bills are now the sole owners of the sixth seed, one game ahead of the Colts, Texans, Bengals and Steelers, two games clear of the Broncos.
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Thanks to all that, Sean McDermott’s team – considered mostly dead less than a month ago when they were 6-6 after an overtime loss to the Eagles – has a 92% chance to make the postseason according to the New York Times playoff simulator.
Buffalo Bills playoff clinching scenarios
And that can become 100% next weekend if the Bills defeat the Patriots at Highmark Stadium, and then one of two scenarios go their way.
The first requires the Chiefs to defeat the visiting Bengals (very possible), the Seahawks to beat the visiting Steelers (also very possible), and the visiting Panthers to defeat the reeling Jaguars (possible given Jacksonville’s current four-game losing streak, but probably unlikely). If two of those teams – Bengals, Steelers, Jaguars – lose, the Bills clinch at least a wild-card berth.
The second is a bit more dicey because it requires the Colts to lose at home to the Raiders, the Texans to lose at home to the Titans, plus either a Steelers or Bengals loss, so three games need to go Buffalo’s way.
In Week 17, if the Bills win and the unlikely event that absolutely nothing else falls their way, they still have an 82% chance to make it as a wild-card team.
As for the AFC East race, the only game that made Buffalo wince last weekend was Dallas’ failure to hold a one-point lead in the final five minutes and losing on a walk-off field goal to the division-leading Dolphins. Thus, Miami remains two games ahead of the Bills with two to play.
However, the Bills’ chances to win the AFC East were not crushed. In Week 17, the Dolphins have another huge test as they travel to Baltimore. If Miami wins, it will clinch the division and will be in the drivers’ seat for the No. 1 seed in the AFC bracket, meaning a bye week and automatic advancement to the divisional round.
But if the Dolphins lose, and assuming the Bills beat the Patriots, then Buffalo will head to Miami for the season finale and a victory at Hard Rock Stadium would make them AFC East champions for the fourth consecutive year. That’s because while both teams’ records would be 11-6, the Bills would own the head-to-head tiebreaker by sweeping the season series.
Sal Maiorana can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal’s newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
Christine Lake is a sports fanatic who lives and breathes athletics. With an extensive background in sports journalism, he covers everything from major league championships to grassroots sports events. When she’s not on the field or at the stadium, you’ll find Christine coaching youth sports teams.
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