Fantasy Football: 2023 Rookie Review

Rookies are fun. There’s something about the unknown with them, even after they’ve excelled in the college game and had scouts and pundits singing their praises — and occasionally filleting their production to the point that fans wonder if these players could ever actually play the game.

(Class of 2024, be ready. They’re coming for you next.)

But when rookies put it together and gain their footing in the NFL, it often comes with fantasy-league-winning results. Justin Jefferson was either a late-round pick or a waiver-wire pickup, and he delivered a WR6 season in 2020. That same season, Justin Herbert passed for 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns after he came on as an injury replacement in Week 2. Alvin Kamara exploded as the RB3 after being largely ignored during draft season in 2017.

As is the case with these three players, rookie breakouts can mean even better seasons to follow.

The just-completed 2023 season had a little bit of everything when it came to rookies. Fantasy managers have gotten savvier about holding on to rookies in anticipation of second-half breakouts, with a pretty decent batting average. That worked out in the most important weeks, the fantasy playoffs. And speaking of playoffs, keep an eye on how some of these players fare during the real NFL playoffs, as big performances in these island games can send a player’s ADP zooming in the coming season. Recency bias is alive and well, amigos y amigas.

This article is going to look at nine rookies who excelled to varying degrees, and a fantasy crystal ball is deployed to see where their 2024 draft stock stands in that 7-to-8-month window in which OTAs, training camp news and, unfortunately, injuries can play with that ADP.

Anthony Richardson and Tank Dell were held out on purpose because of season-ending injuries. They’ll appear in another article soon. But since it’s never too early to look ahead, let’s check in on these rookies as they ascend to sophomore status.

With six 300-yard games — NFL passing yardage leader Tua Tagovailoa had five — Stroud had the best rookie passer season since Justin Herbert in 2020. Matt Harmon described him aptly as a “talent elevator.” Stroud helped three wide receivers — Nico Collins, Noah Brown and fellow rookie Dell — to multiple 100-yard games. Stroud’s tight end, Dalton Schultz, finished as the TE11.

Stroud finished eighth in the league with 4,108 passing yards. He was especially clutch at home, averaging 310.8 passing yards and passing for 17 touchdowns in eight games. Be ready to see Stroud A LOT on national TV games next fall because of plays such as this.

• 2024 draft outlook: The fifth round, in the mid-50s range, where Herbert and Trevor Lawrence were drafted in 2023, appears to be a good spot for Stroud. That’s about the QB7-8 range. If Stroud takes strides on the road, he’ll keep climbing in future seasons.

How does a first-year player compiling almost 1,500 scrimmage yards, scoring eight touchdowns and finishing as the RB9 get looked upon as a disappointment? Well, Robinson came into the NFL Draft process with almost impossible expectations, and the hype train boosted him to the back half of the first round. Anything short of Eric Dickerson’s 1,808-yard, 20-touchdown rookie season in 1983 might sound like a letdown.

Robinson is still electric and has special skills. Nothing changes that. It’s going to be up to what the offensive environment looks like in 2024 with a new head coach. Tyler Allgeier is still on a rookie deal and might continue to be a factor. But Robinson should be a major asset in the passing game, after he was fourth among all running backs with 86 targets and sixth with 58 receptions.

Please get this team a starting-caliber quarterback.

2024 draft outlook: Fantasy managers are going to think they’re buying on the dip with Robinson, and in one early ADP, I saw him still going 10th overall. Makes sense. Robinson remains uber-talented, and there will be many betting on a new coach unlocking a breakout season. And they could be right.

What’s the difference between Gibbs’ and Robinson’s respective rookie seasons? Gibbs had fewer total yards (1,261) and 52 receptions. In a word: touchdowns — Gibbs has hit the painted area 10 times.

Gibbs had five top-three finishes at his position and became a major part of one of the best offenses in the NFL (fifth-most points scored at 431). He’s the RB10 on the 18-week season, even though he was on the field for just 56.6% of the snaps. He had a target share of 13.1%.

2024 draft outlook: Dynamic running backs are hard to come by, and Gibbs is as good as any. Especially those on a team with a good quarterback, top-notch pass-catchers and a standout offensive line like the Lions. Lock in Gibbs as a first-rounder, even if David Montgomery returns or Detroit drafts another running back.

That four-touchdown, 233-scrimmage-yard explosion in Week 3 feels like a long time ago, though his rushing for 107 yards against Baltimore’s stout defense and finishing as the RB4 with 21.70 points reminded people of what the speedster can still do.

Injuries limited Achane to 11 games, but in those, he averaged 9.4 carries and 16.1 fantasy points per game. The latter was fourth in the league. Regardless of whether the Dolphins bring in other running backs alongside him, Achane will likely become a more prominent point of the offense, so he’ll see more than the 103 carries he did as long as he’s healthy. (Just stay healthy.)

2024 draft outlook: Will he put those injury concerns behind him? Achane should be an early pick because of his talent and the dynamic Miami offense. Maybe late first round, early second round. Fantasy managers will still push him high because of the upside.

What a year, from the 177th pick in the fifth round of the draft to training-camp revelation to full-fledged NFL rookie breakout. Now he’s a record-holder, as Nacua set NFL rookie highs for receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,486).

You might say that’s exceeding expectations for a player who saw 19 wide receivers picked ahead of him.

Nacua is very much a straw that stirs the Rams offense, as he drew at least seven targets in every game except for the last one, when head coach Sean McVay pulled him after Nacua’s final catch secured the receiving mark. His 26.8% target share was 10th in the NFL, ahead of such receiving luminaries as Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase.

2024 draft outlook: Nacua will not be a value like he was this past season, when he was one of the top finds on the waiver wire. He’ll likely be a late first-round, early second-round pick. Sharing the Rams’ wide receiver spotlight with Cooper Kupp might scare some people off, but there were not many more consistent players than Nacua. Especially so for a rookie.

I kidded Matt Harmon in preseason because he’d done such a good job telling people Reed was a very good prospect that I kept getting sniped in drafts for him. After a two-touchdown game in his second NFL contest, Reed announced himself as a coming attraction.

With 10 total touchdowns, Reed tied LaPorta and Gibbs among rookie leaders. By the latter portion of the season, he was an important part of the GB offense. Starting Week 12, Reed saw at least eight targets in four out of five games and started to see more rushing attempts. While he’s no Deebo Samuel, he saw multiple carries in three of his last eight games.

2024 draft outlook: Reed is going to be a tough player to nail down in ADP. He’s talented, but there are so many good pass-catchers in Green Bay. That could hinder his total targets and drive down his overall production. But if he’s going in the Round 6-8 range, it’d be hard to pass him up on a growing offense.

The Boston College product helped a lot of people win fantasy titles with scoring outputs of 17.70 and 18.10, respectively, in Weeks 16 and 17. Talk about good timing. Flowers seemed to take a big step forward after Week 11, when tight end Mark Andrews was hurt. Flowers saw eight or more targets in three of five games in that span and finished the season with a 22.7% target share. That was good for 21st in the league.

That he had his best games toward the end of the season bodes well for his upcoming fantasy fortunes. With Odell Beckham Jr. on a one-year contract, there could be more targets available coming for Flowers. OC Todd Monken has built offenses that feature both wide receivers and tight ends prominently, so when Andrews returns next season, there should be enough balls to go around.

2024 draft outlook: With another year in this offense, the connection between Lamar Jackson and Flowers should become more firmly established. Those six targets per game, if they jump by one or two, would be significant. Flowers is likely a WR3 who could jump up if those targets increase. His 8.9 ADOT was far below teammate Rashod Bateman’s 14.7, so expanding his route tree for more vertical shots could also bring a boost in production.

The fantasy community and all of Lions fandom breathed a collective sigh of relief when it was announced that LaPorta had not suffered a serious injury in Week 18. The diagnosis of a hyperextended knee and bone bruise sounds ominous enough, but while these injuries could keep him out of the Lions’ playoff hunt, his long-term outlook remains glowing.

LaPorta finished as the overall TE1, 23 points ahead of No. 2 Evan Engram. That’s quite the ROI on a player picked as the TE23 in the 11th round, and the accolades don’t stop there. He’s one of three tight ends — along with Rob Gronkowski and Mike Ditka — to catch 10 touchdowns as rookies. He also caught the most receptions for a rookie tight end.

2024 draft outlook: People are already talking about LaPorta supplanting the other No. 87 (Travis Kelce) as the TE1 for 2024 fantasy drafts. In an offense in which Amon-Ra St. Brown is the alpha wide receiver, LaPorta will find plenty of open space to roam and soak up receptions. He won’t command a first-round pick like Kelce last draft season, but those looking for positional advantage will probably select him around the third round.

Rice is not the reason for everything about the Chiefs offense taking a major step backward. In fact, he got better as the season progressed and became a major part of the offense by season’s end. In Weeks 12-17, Rice caught 43 balls for 518 yards and three touchdowns, good for a WR6 standing.

So much was made of Rice catching a lot of balls close to the line of scrimmage, and that has merit. But for a rookie wide receiver to be scratching at the surface of 1,000 receiving yards — he finished with 938 — in a complicated Andy Reid offense that is notoriously difficult for rookies to consume is significant. Remember, Tyreek Hill was largely a part-time receiver his first year in this offense, totaling 593 yards.

2024 draft outlook: Rice is one of several players who could get a boost based on good performances in the postseason. With so much being made of Mahomes’ performance compared to his lofty standards, if Rice can keep his momentum going and put up some numbers, he could soar up the rankings. As of now, he’s a WR3 with upside similar to that of Reed.