Iran-Israel tensions, China Q1 GDP

India’s growth is no longer constrained to a narrow part of the economy, with the banking sector continuing to be a big driver, according to JPMorgan’s Harsh Modi, co-head of Asia ex-Japan for banks research.

“India is one market where we are getting very significant growth, and this growth is across the board,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”

Modi said the asset quality of Indian banks is “one of the cleanest” in Asia-Pacific, adding that he sees opportunities in the sector which has “very clean books now.”

— Charmaine Jacob

China’s economy grew 5.3% in the first quarter compared with a year ago, faster than the 4.6% growth expected by economists polled by Reuters.

Data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed that gross domestic product in the January to March period was higher than the 5.2% growth for the fourth quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, China’s GDP grew 1.6% in the first quarter.

Beijing has set a 2024 growth target of around 5%.

—Lim Hui Jie

New home prices in China have fallen for a ninth straight month, slipping 2.2% year on year in March.

This was a faster decline than the 1.4% drop in February, and is the sharpest fall in home prices since August 2015, according to LSEG data.

On a month-on-month basis, prices of new housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.1% month-on-month, while sale prices of new homes in second and third-tier cities fell by 0.3% and 0.4% month-on-month, respectively.

First tier cities include the capital Beijing, as well as Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

— Lim Hui Jie

The Japanese yen fell to its weakest level since June 1990, crossing the 154 mark against the U.S. dollar.

The yen has been firmly beyond the 150 mark since the Bank of Japan raised interest rates on March 19, with Japanese officials repeatedly saying that “all options are on the table” to counter excessive yen moves.

On April 4, former top currency diplomat Hiroshi Watanabe said that authorities will not intervene until the yen crosses 155 against the greenback, according to Reuters.

Crude oil prices have been volatile in April amid heightened geopolitical risks.

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— Ganesh Rao

Asian markets have had a mixed start to the year — with investors looking keenly at India, Japan and increasingly China.

Looking ahead, those searching for pockets of opportunities in the region can look to Morgan Stanley’s selection of “alpha” stocks. Alpha stocks refer to those with the ability to beat the market.

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— Amala Balakrishner

The oil market on Monday shrugged off Iran’s weekend air assault against Israel with U.S. crude and the global benchmark both settling slightly lower.

The West Texas Intermediate contract for May lost 25 cents, or 0.29%, to settle at $85.41 a barrel. June Brent futures fell 35 cents, or 0.39%, to settle at $90.10 a barrel.

The market had already priced in the risk from an attack Iran had telegraphed for days beforehand, and traders breathed a sigh of relief after Israel and the U.S. intercepted nearly all the missiles fired.

What happens next depends on how Israel decides to respond.

“What is not priced into the current market, in our view, is a potential continuation of a direct conflict between Iran and Israel,” Maximilian Layton, head of commodities research at Citi, told clients in a note. Oil prices could spike above $100 a barrel depending on how Israel responds to the attack, the analyst wrote.

— Spencer Kimball

The major indexes resumed their sell-off on Monday, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped below its 50-day moving average as the index dropped about 1.7%.

It was the first time the tech-heavy index slid below this key threshold since Nov. 3, 2023. If it closes below that level, it will be a first since Nov. 2, 2023. The index is up more than 30% in the past 12 months.

The 50-day moving average is a technical indicator that traders watch to assess short-term trading trends. A close below this level could signal an upcoming downtrend for an asset.

— Darla Mercado, Nick Wells

Turmoil in the Middle East could cause dramatic moves in the financial markets, according to U.K. investment bank Liberum Capital, which is calling for oil to surge to $100 and a stock market correction as big as 10%.

“In our base case scenario of Israel retaliating but in a limited way that keeps the conflict from escalating further, this could lead to a 5-10% correction in the stock market together with further strength in the U.S. dollar,” Liberum, founded in 2007, said in a note to clients.

The firm revealed the obvious short-term winners, which include defense contractors.

— Yun Li

Stock futures took a leg up after retail sales data came in hotter than anticipated for March.

U.S. Census Bureau data showed the measure increased 0.7% for the month. That is a higher rate than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for a 0.3% increase, underscoring the trend of continued consumption despite higher prices in the U.S.

— Alex Harring, Jeff Cox