The NBA’s 2023-24 season is about to hit its halfway point, and it’s time for Part II of The Athletic’s midseason review, along with predictions for the future.
Today, we’re diving into the upcoming trade deadline, the players and teams with the most to prove and the teams we expect to reach the NBA Finals.
To keep things going, we’ve assembled three of our writers: Kelly Iko in Houston, Jason Quick in Portland and Josh Robbins in Washington.
Part I: Reevaluating 2023 offseason moves, assessing overachievers and underachievers and a look at the league’s biggest surprises.
What league storyline has intrigued you most so far this season?
Kelly Iko: I think Tuesday’s slate of games — the highly anticipated Joel Embiid/Nikola Jokić matchup, a thrilling Kevin Durant-led fourth-quarter comeback win for the Suns and a wire-to-wire Thunder/Clippers tilt featuring vintage Paul George — accentuates the elevated state of the game today and, more importantly, thrusts the MVP debate to the forefront.
After a game in which Embiid put up another masterclass performance — 41 points, seven rebounds and 10 assists and Jokić also stuffed the stat sheet with 25 points and 19 rebounds — it was quite refreshing to hear Embiid heaping praise on Jokić after the final buzzer, a healthy shift from the typical vitriol that infests social media when discussing these two superstars. These two generational big men have dominated the MVP landscape for the past three seasons and are the top candidates in 2023-24. Embiid has diversified his game thanks in part to new head coach Nick Nurse, and Jokić continues to put up video game numbers in his sleep and carries a top-10 offense.
But Embiid lathering Jokić with plaudits is important. The reigning MVP sees Jokić as the best player in the world after a dominating regular season and carrying that fine form deep into the postseason, something Embiid hasn’t been able to do just yet. And these aren’t the only players in the league playing at the peak of their powers — Durant, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, the list goes on. The league is in good hands right now.
Jason Quick: Call me a sicko, but I was gripped by the Pistons’ 28-game losing streak. I checked nightly to see how they were doing, and if they were in a game, I tried to tune in. For much of the Pistons’ spiral, the Spurs also were spinning, at one point losing 18 in a row. Can’t say I remember two teams being so futile at the same time, so I oddly became intrigued at how bad they are.
Josh Robbins: I was fascinated by the rollout and execution of the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament. League officials faced a challenging question: What’s the best way to introduce a concept that is mostly foreign to a North American audience? Soccer fans in Europe and soccer aficionados in North America are familiar with competitions such as England’s FA Cup and Spain’s Copa del Rey, but the notion of a tournament that runs parallel to (and in this case, in conjunction with) a regular season was a largely unheard of idea for those of us raised on North America’s largest pro sports leagues.
So, naturally, the league had a lot of teaching to do, and given the complexity of the task — with every In-Season Tournament game except for the championship counting toward teams’ regular-season records — there was some confusion among fans and some players, especially at first.
As has been stated elsewhere, particularly on “Pardon the Interruption,” the tournament gained added credibility largely because LeBron James competed hard and his team won it and because Tyrese Haliburton solidified himself as one of the game’s emerging stars.
The truth is, it’s much too early to say the tournament is going to be something the vast majority of NBA fans look forward to year in and year out. Whether that will happen can only be determined over time. But I don’t think there’s any doubt that the tournament was, at the bare minimum, a novel experiment, and it has earned a chance to mature and evolve.
Which team or person has the most to prove from now until the end of the regular season?
Iko: It feels like it’s the Clippers every season, but this is the season. This has to be the year the stars align — no pun intended — and they finally go on the NBA Finals run we’ve expected ever since Kawhi Leonard and George joined forces.
Now that they’ve added James Harden into the mix and seemingly tied all their roster flexibility to these three, there’s no turning back. Yes, they have the league’s No. 1 offense this month. We’ve been here before with this group. Can they get it done in the playoffs? This might be their best — and last — chance.
Quick: Draymond Green. Can the mercurial Golden State forward contain his emotions and temper after his suspension and missing 16 games? And if he can, does the new, muted Green have the same impact as the one who was a key piece to the Warriors’ dynasty? The only certainty is that Green has a lot to prove on both fronts as he tries to walk the fine line between being fiery and being a distraction.
Robbins: It’s the Lakers — and particularly, James, whose on-court legacy is secure many times over. But now that he’s 39 years old, and now that the Lakers are 21-21 and are teetering on the edge of missing the Western Conference Play-In, the questions about whether he can carry a team will only intensify. That’s the way it goes with aging athletes, even the great ones.
There are a lot of people within the Lakers under scrutiny these days, including executive Rob Pelinka and coach Darvin Ham. But James overshadows them all. Can he and Anthony Davis lift the Lakers into the traditional eight-team playoffs again, either by avoiding the Play-In altogether or by playing their way through the Play-In? James no doubt hears the skepticism. And no doubt, he’ll use that skepticism as motivation. The great ones always do. But is he still great enough to harness that motivation into results? That’s the question he and the Lakers must answer.
The trade deadline is three weeks away. Name a team that needs to make an impactful move.
Iko: I know it’s taboo to suggest the Thunder rush things or dip their toes into the trade market, but haven’t we learned anything from the past? Nothing in this league is guaranteed. When you’re hot, you have to strike. Especially when you could make a strong argument that the Western Conference is wide open.
Tuesday night’s loss to the Clippers, while an entertaining game, offered a glimpse into what the postseason could look like for the Thunder. Teams are going to load up on Gilgeous-Alexander and swarm the paint, forcing kick-outs to anyone else and daring them to beat them. Jalen Williams, Lu Dort and Isaiah Joe were awesome and have been this season, but I still think Oklahoma City could use another three-level scorer, even if to alleviate the load on SGA’s shoulders. He’s been phenomenal but his 31,1 percent usage rate is sky-high, and we’ve seen what happens with guards in the playoffs who have that much weight on their shoulders in the regular season. I’m sure Thunder fans would shudder at the thought of adding a Zach LaVine type, but what about Dejounte Murray? It’s not the craziest thing in the world.
Quick: The Lakers. Hovering around .500 with LeBron and Davis having standout seasons, the Lakers are in desperate need of some help before their championship window closes. In particular, the Lakers could use some shooting. The Lakers are 28th in the league in 3-pointers per game (10.9) and 20th in 3-point percentage while ranking 22nd in offensive rating.
Robbins: I’m a lot more bullish on the 76ers’ chances to reach the NBA Finals than most people. Yes, the Celtics have been superb this season. And yes, having Damian Lillard helps the Bucks create offense when the tempo slows down in the playoffs. But I believe the Sixers are right on the Celtics’ and Bucks’ heels and can beat either of those teams in a best-of-seven series. As The Athletic has noted before, I think Philly would benefit from trading for a two-way wing with size — someone who can hit an open 3 and make the likes of Tatum and Jaylen Brown work hard for their points. There’s a reason why everyone wants those 3-and-D types: they’re that important, particularly come playoff time.
A couple of caveats before the next question: the impact of the trade deadline and how an injury affects a team. Unfortunately, injuries can never be taken out of the game. But having seen what you’ve seen so far this season, which Eastern Conference team do you expect to reach the NBA Finals?
Iko: As fun as the 76ers have been, I still don’t think they have enough to go all the way, but I don’t see a reason why the Bucks don’t have enough firepower to come out of the East. It’s a stretch calling a superstar like Damian Lillard an X-factor, but Milwaukee has never had a shotmaker of that caliber, who once again reminded us that “Dame Time” never stopped, it just moved from the Pacific to Central time zone. He will single-handedly win them multiple playoff games with his clutch genes.
Their defense has plummeted without Jrue Holiday as well as Brook Lopez’s age, but the Bucks still have a top-two offense and I don’t think we’ve even seen the best version of that yet. Spam Lillard/Giannis pick-and-rolls until you can’t anymore.
Quick: Boston. The most complete team in the league. The Celtics rank second in defensive rating and third in offensive rating and have won their first 20 home games. After losing in the 2022 NBA Finals and the conference finals last season, the tandem of Tatum and Brown should be hardened and determined for the upcoming playoff run. That run should benefit from the defense of Holiday, who will be invaluable in the playoffs in neutralizing potential matchups against East guards Lillard, Tyrese Maxey and Jalen Brunson.
Robbins: I’m going with the Sixers. Joel Embiid is a matchup problem for anyone, and I think he will be the most dominant player in the East in these playoffs.
Which Western Conference team will reach the NBA Finals?
Iko: I think the Suns, which have quietly won seven of their last 10 games, will continue on this upward trajectory and stabilize themselves come postseason time. Head coach Frank Vogel deployed Durant at center for a stretch in the comeback win over the Kings and it certainly looks like a tactical weapon to keep. Between Durant and Devin Booker alone, they have enough firepower to give any opposing team fits over a seven-game series.
Can Bradley Beal be healthy and available? That’s the real question. But the Suns’ two-headed monster can beat you from anywhere on the floor and has shown enough playmaking to take a backseat and facilitate when the other is heating up. I don’t love their depth outside of the starters (Grayson Allen!) and still think they need to make one more move before the deadline, but I wouldn’t want to be on the other sideline against these guys in May.
Quick: The Clippers. With the integration of Harden complete, the Clippers look formidable. It’s hard to see a team with the personnel to stop Harden, Leonard and George over a seven-game series, and you have to figure Russell Westbrook, Norman Powell or Tre Mann will have a game-changing performance along the way. If LA can upgrade at center, look out. With Ty Lue game-planning on the sideline, the Clippers will be a tough out.
Robbins: The Denver Nuggets will return to the NBA Finals. The Timberwolves and Thunder have been amazing stories, and they’ll be formidable opponents in the postseason. But they’re also young, and the NBA traditionally has been a league where even the greatest, most talented teams had to take some playoff lumps and build playoff experience before they finally break through.
The Nuggets have done it before. What would worry me about them, however, is their depth. But I still think Jokić, Jamal Murray and their teammates will emerge from the West. It would make things more comfortable if they could secure home-court advantage for the playoffs, but given their experience, I don’t think that’s necessary for them.
(Top photo of Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid: Bill Streicher / USA Today)
Christine Lake is a sports fanatic who lives and breathes athletics. With an extensive background in sports journalism, he covers everything from major league championships to grassroots sports events. When she’s not on the field or at the stadium, you’ll find Christine coaching youth sports teams.
