PROJECTED: Rounds 1-2
The Heisman Trophy runner-up and one of the most productive passers in college football last season, Penix (6-2 1/4, 216) is one of the most polarizing prospects in this draft — and some coaches are believers, a lengthy injury history notwithstanding.
“The second-best quarterback in the draft, just as a pure film evaluation, is Michael Penix,” an AFC assistant coach said. “When someone is often injured, the concern is durability over time. Is his body going to wear down? I’m a f—ing coach, dude. I don’t give a s— about that. I think he’s got the biggest ‘it’ factor. He stands in the pocket and makes throws consistently. He took Indiana, they were (ranked) in the top 10. He took Washington to the national championship game. To me, he’s the guy. He plays with a ton of confidence. His guys love him.”
Penix was a three-year starter at Indiana, but suffered four consecutive season-ending injuries: a torn ACL in 2018, a right (non-throwing) shoulder injury in 2019, a torn ACL in 2020 and an AC joint separation in his left (throwing) shoulder in 2021. Sources say pre-draft medical exams confirmed Penix’s twice-reconstructed right knee is structurally sound; he also received a positive report in January from renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who found no meniscus issue or other associated damage. Some teams still will give him a lower medical grade based on the repeat injury, but it’s nothing that would cause him to fail a physical. Penix’s lack of mobility — or perhaps reluctance to use it — is a bigger consideration for some teams.
“He’s going to need a lot of structure, because he had the best combination of protection and pass-catching threats,” an NFC executive said, referring to a loaded Washington offense featuring two probable first-round picks in this year’s draft, receiver Rome Odunze and lineman Troy Fautanu. “He got hit the least out of any of the top quarterbacks. And I think he rushed for [8] yards on the season. Then you’ve got to factor in the medical. He’s a two-time ACL guy. But arm strength? He’s got the strongest arm out of all of these quarterbacks we’re talking about. It’s just a matter of, your s—‘s gotta be set up pretty good to drop a guy like that off in it. Your protection’s gotta be strong. You’ve got to feel good about your offense, where he’s going to throw in rhythm. He’s not going to be an off-platform guy.”
Said an NFC quarterbacks coach: “He’s a little frail when you look at him, so you can see where some of the injuries have happened, where those other guys — they have escapability, they have mobility. He’s not as accurate as those top couple guys. He misses some throws, some of the plant throws, and his release is a little bit longer than some of those other guys, although he probably had the best combine workout of the guys who threw.”
At Washington, Penix reunited with Kalen DeBoer, who’d been his OC at Indiana in 2019, and threw for over 9,500 yards and 67 touchdowns in two seasons with the Huskies. Penix’s final college campaign was his best, leading FBS with 4,903 passing yards while earning second-team AP All-America honors.
“He’s played a lot of football. He’s a good thrower. The ball comes out quick. He processes fast. He’s accurate. He’s a natural thrower,” an AFC quarterbacks coach said, noting that Penix has never called a play in the huddle. “A lot of stuff is wristbanded (in the NFL), so he can read it. But there’s definitely going to be a little bit of time for him to adjust to an NFL type of offense and the verbiage and all that stuff. He’ll do it because he’s the right kind of kid and he’s smart enough.”
In 48 games (45 starts) over six seasons at Indiana and Washington, Penix completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 13,741 yards and 96 touchdowns with 34 interceptions. He also had 13 rushing touchdowns, but just 265 rushing yards total.
“Man, you wish he was just a little bit more, because you love the guy, you love the way he plays,” an AFC executive said. “He’s really smart. He’s one of those dudes where, if a guy’s open, he finds him with his eyes. He can get hot and just carve people up from the pocket. Not because he’s throwing lasers or because he’s so quick and agile — he just finds it. If you break the coverage, he’s going to put it on his guy. He’s not as accurate as you would think when you deep-dive into the film. That’s probably the one piece where his receivers make him look a lot better. His ball placement’s a little funky. This year he was better.”
Penix’s low, left-handed delivery comes up often in conversations with scouts and coaches.
“Unless he’s throwing the ball outside the f—ing numbers, it’s getting batted down,” another AFC executive said. “He throws it on a f—ing rope every f—ing time. He’s thrown a deep ball — I’ve seen that, all right, great. He’s got that f—ed up motion. He’s got zero touch.”
Said an NFC head coach: “I know there’s video of him in games where he’s got his hand underneath the ball. But when you watch him at the combine, he’s got the widest wingspan (81 inches), widest shoulders, 10 [1/2-inch] hands — that guy can spin it.”
Penix was 27-of-51 passing for 255 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions while under siege in the national title game, a 34-13 blowout loss to Michigan.
“The injuries, the age, the talent around him make him hard,” an NFC coordinator said of Penix, who turns 24 next month. “For whatever reason, I think it’s always hard to evaluate a lefty, because you see so few of them. I think he has a lot of ‘wow’ plays and I think he has a lot of talent. There’s no mobility. There’s a high injury risk. The national championship game — I go back and forth on it, because I do think his offensive line just got destroyed. But your offensive line does get destroyed in this league. That’s real. He looked lost. He looks jittery. He looks skittish. He looks almost scared, and I get it. That’s a concern. But I don’t see a world in which he gets past Seattle (at No. 16).”
Said another NFC quarterbacks coach: “I don’t think [the throwing motion is] a big deal. The most important thing is, is it getting there on time and is it getting there accurately? He sees it well. He’s instinctive. I can see why people like him. I think the kid has a natural feel as a passer, and that’s something you can’t coach.”
Penix participated in Senior Bowl practices, but opted out of the game. Despite rarely using his legs as a runner in college, Penix reportedly posted a 40-yard dash time in the 4.51-4.57 range at his pro day, while also posting impressive figures in the vertical leap (36 1/2 inches) and broad jump (10-5).
“He should look great throwing on air. The question is, can he deal with people at his feet?” another NFC executive said. “You saw it in the national championship game. You saw it a little bit at the Senior Bowl. How is he going to be off-spot?”
Said an AFC coordinator: “We thought, if everything’s on schedule, he’s a very, very good quarterback and he can make the throws. The minute he has to get off the spot, you don’t know what’s going to happen. How can you draft that guy to be the backup when you know, in the preseason, he’s going to be playing with a backup O-line? He’s going to be running for his life, he’s going to look like s—. The owner’s going to be looking at you: What the hell? Why did we draft this guy that can’t play?“
Just how polarizing is Penix? One scout ranked him seventh among QBs in this year’s class, behind South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler. Multiple coaches also put Rattler ahead of Penix. One veteran coach’s comp for Penix was journeyman Brett Hundley.
“I actually like Rattler more than I do Penix,” another NFC coordinator said. “I keep seeing everything where [Penix is] climbing, he’s climbing. He could go to the Raiders at 13? I just didn’t buy it. It was so clean for him.”
Other scouts argue that, medicals notwithstanding, Penix is a classic overevaluation.
“I think he’s been beat down a lot (about the health issues) and it’s unnecessary,” an NFC scouting director said. “And the tape’s pretty damn good this year. We can beat him up all we want on that, too — you sit down and watch it back-to-back with these other guys, and you’re like, ‘All right, he’s earned the praise he’s getting.’ ”
The Commanders, Patriots, Broncos and Raiders have all brought in Penix for visits; the Falcons worked him out privately.
“His arm talent is really good. He was really productive,” an AFC scouting director said. “I think all 10 guys he was on the field with are current or future draft prospects. But he also performed at a high level. I envision him in that Patriots-type offense. I’m not saying by any means he’s Tom Brady, but one of those offenses that kind of spreads it out horizontally and he’s getting the ball out quickly. Because the best thing he does is push the ball outside the numbers, vertically down the field. I don’t think he’s great at layering the ball inside. The way he throws the ball, I can see him having success.”
Christine Lake is a sports fanatic who lives and breathes athletics. With an extensive background in sports journalism, he covers everything from major league championships to grassroots sports events. When she’s not on the field or at the stadium, you’ll find Christine coaching youth sports teams.
