The Hunter Biden “informant,” Alexander Smirnov, was arrested by the FBI for making it up.

On Thursday, the Justice Department announced charges against an FBI informant with inventing the claims that the Ukrainian energy company Burisma had hired Hunter Biden as a way of channeling bribes to Joe Biden. David Weiss—the Trump-appointed special counsel who had also levied charges against Hunter Biden—announced the charges, contending the informant had “transformed his routine and unextraordinary business contacts” into salacious allegations targeting the president.

The informant, 43-year-old Alexander Smirnov, had allegedly given agents false information in 2020 and was known to strongly dislike Joe Biden. According to the indictment, Smirnov’s story fell apart upon questioning in 2023. He was arrested in Las Vegas on Wednesday.

So just how much does it matter to Republicans that this FBI informant has been charged with fabricating his claims? How much does it change the narrative about the “Biden crime family” that has become entrenched among both right-wing politicians and media?

We can’t assume the development will be taken seriously on the right, given Trump supporters’ distrust of the FBI. On Fox News, the biggest peddler of this narrative, the hosts ignored the news. But if it were taken seriously, it would come as a significant blow.

The FBI informant, who had not been publicly named previously, was the star figure of possibly the most credible accusation against the president. You may recall the whole drama from May 2023 in which Rep. James Comer and Sen. Chuck Grassley demanded the FBI release “an unclassified record alleging a criminal scheme involving then-Vice President Joe Biden and a foreign national.” That was the form that contained this fabrication from Smirnov.

Known in the Fox News internet sleuth community as the FD-1023 form, it contained claims from an informant asserting that the then-unnamed Smirnov had spoken with Burisma’s founder and discovered that Burisma officials had tried to pay the two Bidens $5 million each for their help in ousting Ukrainian prosecutor Viktor Shokin, who had been investigating Burisma for corruption.  If that had been true, it would have been a true bombshell: As vice president, Joe Biden would have leveraged his power over U.S. foreign policy to protect a foreign company from prosecution in exchange for a bribe. In other words, it would have been a clear-cut case of corruption. But there was a real reason the FBI resisted sharing this form: It contained an unsubstantiated allegation from a dubiously reliable source. In 2020, the Trump DOJ had investigated Smirnov’s claims and failed to find any evidence supporting them. There was no reason to present the allegations as legitimate.

The FBI was right to worry that releasing the form would be dangerous. When it gave a redacted version of the form to the legislators, the Republican hype machine went into overdrive. In his position as chairman of the House Oversight Committee, Comer repeatedly alluded to proof of corruption, seemingly based on the form. But more importantly, Fox News latched onto the allegations, accusing the FBI of covering up for the Bidens and portraying the informant as highly credible and in danger of retaliation. Sean Hannity emerged as the form’s biggest booster. According to data from the liberal group Media Matters, his show aired 85 segments promoting the bribery claim in 2023. On Fox, the president’s corruption became an assumed truth. Smirnov’s claims also became central to the House GOP’s failed effort to impeach Biden.

One might hope that there would be vast recriminations and public embarrassment now that the feds have formally charged the source of so much drama with making it all up. But the damage in public perception from this episode is done and likely can’t be corrected with the news of the informant’s arrest. Even if the right took it seriously, though, Fox News still has a few other “Biden crime family” storylines to mine that are not connected to Smirnov or his form.

As the Media Matters data showed, while Smirnov’s claims were the most exciting accusations, Hannity had even more segments (though fewer triumphant monologues) on Comer’s vague claims that Hunter Biden had used shell companies to “launder the money they were receiving from foreign nationals.” (The Washington Post reported that these were all actually legitimate businesses, except for one short-lived company that may have been unconnected to Hunter Biden.)

Then there’s the connected claim from a Comer memo that the committee had found more than $20 million in payments from “foreign sources” to Biden family members or their associates. None of the payments were directly connected to Joe Biden, and the Post found that only $7 million of that total went to Biden family members.

There’s also the 2017 email in which a Hunter Biden associate used the phrase “10 held by H for the big guy?” in discussions of a partnership between Hunter and his uncle Jim Biden and the Chinese energy conglomerate CEFC China Energy. The draft agreement and later official agreement that resulted from this exchange made no mention of Joe Biden; there’s no evidence the president was involved in any of this.

And finally, there’s a threatening 2017 WhatsApp message that Hunter sent to a Chinese executive: “I am sitting here with my father and we would like to understand why the commitment made has not been fulfilled.” Democrats have maintained that this was pure bluster from Hunter, who was struggling with drug addiction at the time. An associate of Hunter’s testified that they were trying to create the “illusion of access.”

There are even more snippets the right has fixated on. For years now, the right-wing media world has been meticulously scouring all communications and documents related to Hunter Biden for evidence of his father betraying the American public. While officials have found evidence of Hunter’s illegal and unethical behavior around his taxes and use of firearms, there has been nothing officially tying Joe Biden to any wrongdoing. Smirnov’s claims were the most likely source of anything solid showing that the president was involved. Joe Biden may have been reckless in failing to prevent his son from using his family name for clout, but the Republicans’ case for actual corruption is now a lot emptier.

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