Why Alabama Crimson Tide Basketball May or May Not Make the Final Four

By now it seems certain that everyone is familiar with the scene from Dumb and Dumber in which Jim Carrey’s dorky character, Lloyd, asks smoking hot Lauren Holly’s character if there is a chance that they end up together.

With all things in life, there is always a chance. The chances of the Alabama Crimson Tide getting to the Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament is not exactly one out of a million.

According to DraftKings, Alabama’s odds of making the Final 4 are at +450. In other words, bet $100 and win $450. It’s the same odds as both Gonzaga and Creighton, but high than four other teams.

Why Alabama May Not Make The Final Four

1. Two Games – Should the Crimson Tide make it past the Heels, there is still another step to take before reaching the F4. They would also have to upend the Arizona-Clemson winner.
2. Big Guys – Alabama has had issues matching up with elite big men. UNC’s 6’ 11”, 240 lbs center Armando Bacot is definitely an elite. The fifth year senior averages an obscene 10.2 rpg and 14.4 ppg. Arizona has 7’0’’/260 Oumar Ballo who goes 10.5 and 13.4 per game. He too is a senior.
3. Guard Play – UNC’s RJ Davis is a first team All-American. Caleb Love of Arizona was named the Pac-12 Player of the Year. Both these are guys are legit good who can carry a team on their shoulders.
4. Location, Location, Location – Alabama has decided to stay out west for the week, which is probably a good thing. But it’s tough being on the road, flying around, staying in different hotels, eating and training in unfamiliar places. Los Angeles is definitely an advantage to Arizona who travels to LaLa Land regularly to play UCLA and Southern Cal.
5. Fans – I hate to say it, but not too many Alabama fans are able to drop everything and plunk down a couple of grand to travel to the Left Coast for these games. Again we have advantage: Arizona.
6. Getting Over The Sweet 16 Hump – Alabama had some really good teams in 2020–21 and 2022–23. Herb, Keon, Shack, Bruner, Primo, JQ, Petty for that first crew. Brandon, Clowney, Sears, JQ, Angry Chuck, Bradley, Gurley last season. Both teams should have advanced further, but they hit the wall at 16.
7. Going Second – The winner of Arizona-Clemson will have the advantage of watching their next opponent. It is a lot to ask for the Tide staff to watch the opening game while prepping for their game with UNC.

Why Alabama Can Make The Final Four

1. Sears Towering – Mark Sears has turned into a bona fide superstar. He has been consistently scoring over 20 points per game and never seems to have an off-night. His consistency and leadership have the Tide in the position they now enjoy.
2. Bama Guard Defense – Defense was an issue late in the regular season. However, it has stepped up in the Tournament. Aaron Estrada and Mark Sears combined for 22 rebounds against GCU – 17 of which were defensive. They also had seven steals while committing only two fouls apiece. If they can duplicate or come close to these numbers again – WATCH OUT!
3. Kool Mo D & the Chip on Pringle’s Shoulder – Most of Alabama’s losses this season were caused by an inability to bang with the bigs and guard the rim. Freshman Mouhamed Dioubate is 6-7, 215-pounds but has been playing much bigger than that in the last two games. Likewise, Nick Pringle (6-10, 230) has developed a new focus and a nasty streak. He had some personal crisis earlier last week that seems to have reinvigorated him.
4. Trelly Will Be Back – “(Latrell) Wrightsell will be able to play with us Thursday,” coach Nate Oats said after the 72-61 win over the Lopes. “He got elbowed in the head, had a head injury. He’s had some real bad luck here lately, but we’re going to be playing again and he can play with us again on Thursday.”
5. History – Since the seeding system began in 1978, only one Final Four (2008) was comprised of four number one seeds. Three tops seeds making that far has happened only four other times in that span (1993, 1997, 1999, 2015). The odds are, some No. 1 is going to lose. Why not UNC?
6. Familiarity Breeds Contempt – Should the Tide get past UNC, they will face either Clemson or Arizona – two teams Bama lost to in the regular season. Either one of these teams may not give Alabama the respect they deserve and come out flat. Conversely, the Crimson Tide will have revenge on their minds.
7. Opponent Slip Ups – The Tar Heels have a record of 29–7. Among those losses are defeats to Villanova (18-16), Georgia Tech (14-18), and Syracuse (20-12) – three teams that did not even make the Big Dance. They also lost to NC State in the ACCT who would not have been invited without winning the conference tournament. Clemson (23-11) also lost to Ga Tech. Other CU defeats included non-Big Dancers Memphis (22-11), Miami (15–17), Virginia Tech (19-15), Notre Dame (13-20), Wake Forest (21-14) as well as flukey NCSU. Arizona (27-8) fell to PAC-12 garbage Stanford (14-18), Oregon State (13-19), and Southern Cal (15-18). Any team can have a bad night or two or three…
8. Ball ‘N’ Oats – Keep doubting the math teacher. Not counting his first season in Tuscaloosa – the lost year of 2020 Cancel Fever – Nate Oats has been to the Tournament six straight years and seven out of eight in his career. This season is only the third campaign as a head coach for both UNC’s Hubert Davis and Arizona’s Tommy Lloyd. Brad Brownell has been at Clemson 14 seasons, but this is only his fourth Big Dance.
9. Toto, I don’t think we’re in Spokane anymore – My Lawd, those refs in East Podunk, Washington were ridiculous. Official assignments have not been announced but it would be surprising to see Alabama get the same crew.

Do the plusses outweigh the negatives? That is yet to been seen. DraftKings has the Heels as a 4 point favorite with an over/under of 173.5.

By the way, not only did Lloyd get the girl at the end of the movie, but Jim Carrey nabbed Lauren Holly in real life for one shining moment. One in a million, huh?

#RollTide